As we have been posting for several years the stock
market is reflecting a remarkable moment in the US economy. We once
again are seeing a new record S&P 500 high this past Friday. The
S&P is up about 5% this year after being up over 20% the last two
years. The re-shoring of high value manufacturing such as computer
chips which has been happening since after the 2020 downturn which will
go on for another 5 to 8 years, the moving of the large millennial
generation now aged 20 to 43 into their best earning and spending years
and will only peak in numbers in another decade, and of course the
incredible technology companies in this country continue to generate
higher profits and huge cash flows, make for a stock market that even
with the ever so often downturns just keeps going up. These downturns
tend to be emotional burps that when examined by rational investors gets
turned around rather quickly. So it has been with the latest burp the
tariffs. Adding in one more time the current US economy with such
tailwinds which started shortly after the 2008 financial crisis is
little effected by who is sitting in the Oval Office and even in
Congress. All be it the red states are doing much better than the blue
states in forward economic growth.
We
have been pounding the table for a decade to get into this market and
stay in the market. We did suggest during the Biden years to take a
side bet in oil and gas which offered up some enticing profits, but now
that Trump is in office we advised and did so ourselves to sell all such
investments since higher production means lower prices and lower
profits for energy companies. Right now we see similar investment
opportunities going forward with emphasis again on a Index 500 fund and
for the next few months or so a side bet on banks. We bought First
Citizens back about two months ago sensing a change in bank regulation
from the feds and sure enough that is about to happen and FCNCA is up
about $250 a share from our buy price in that time and we still think it
has several hundred dollars to go there. Long term there is simply no
better way to achieve wealth growth than allowing the ten largest
companies in the market now all valued at $1 trillion dollars or more to
make you one of the now growing at about 1000 per day millionaires in
the US especially if you are young and investing with every paycheck and
letting those big cap companies compound your investment over and
over. They are literally compounding growth machines with billions of
cash on the balance sheet and now AI making them even more opportunistic
going forward.
Despite
all the troubles and issues you hear about daily you are blessed to live
in the best place ever on planet earth at the best time to date and
with the best opportunity to join the mass affluent economic class too.
What a glorious time to be free.