Sunday, June 29, 2025

 

As we have been posting for several years the stock market is reflecting a remarkable moment in the US economy.  We once again are seeing a new record S&P 500 high this past Friday.  The S&P is up about 5% this year after being up over 20% the last two years.  The re-shoring of high value manufacturing such as computer chips which has been happening since after the 2020 downturn which will go on for another 5 to 8 years, the moving of the large millennial generation now aged 20 to 43 into their best earning and spending years and will only peak in numbers in another decade, and of course the incredible technology companies in this country continue to generate higher profits and huge cash flows, make for a stock market that even with the ever so often downturns just keeps going up. These downturns tend to be emotional burps that when examined by rational investors gets turned around rather quickly.  So it has been with the latest burp the tariffs. Adding in one more time the current US economy with such tailwinds which started shortly after the 2008 financial crisis is little effected by who is sitting in the Oval Office and even in Congress.  All be it the red states are doing much better than the blue states in forward economic growth. 

We have been pounding the table for a decade to get into this market and stay in the market.  We did suggest during the Biden years to take a side bet in oil and gas which offered up some enticing profits, but now that Trump is in office we advised and did so ourselves to sell all such investments since higher production means lower prices and lower profits for energy companies.   Right now we see similar investment opportunities going forward with emphasis again on a Index 500 fund and for the next few months or so a side bet on banks.   We bought First Citizens back about two months ago sensing a change in bank regulation from the feds and sure enough that is about to happen and FCNCA is up about $250 a share from our buy price in that time and we still think it has several hundred dollars to go there.  Long term there is simply no better way to achieve wealth growth than allowing the ten largest companies in the market now all valued at $1 trillion dollars or more to make you one of the now growing at about 1000 per day millionaires in the US especially if you are young and investing with every paycheck and letting those big cap companies compound your investment over and over.  They are literally compounding growth machines with billions of cash on the balance sheet and now AI making them even more opportunistic going forward. 

Despite all the troubles and issues you hear about daily you are blessed to live in the best place ever on planet earth at the best time to date and with the best opportunity to join the mass affluent economic class too.  What a glorious time to be free.