Assumptions and Investing

This year marks our 40 year anniversary of buying our first financial security.  It was a simple $5000 municipal bond and that purchase introduced us to the new world of investing and not just saving and yes bond are investments not saving.  Try as one may there is no way to save yourself to prosperity, just not enough compounding and most importantly investing means you are using your money to get the profits of other labors and ingenuity.  The difference between 2% compounding and 6% to 8% compounding is monumental, go try the numbers on a online calculator. Same thinking that the difference between a 2% economic growth and 3% economic growth are monumental too.  Safety is important, but one can make big errors at 8% or even 6% and still win big over 2% safe CD or US Treasury Bill.  If you got zillions yeah one can live off 2% forever and still take chances, but 90% of people can not.  You either accept less in life or you go for it.  We went for it and am pleased with the results. 

One learns in early debating class the most important point of debating is to not debate the facts, but to debate the assumptions.  Most of life is assumptions and not facts.  You go to bed assuming you will get up in the morning.  You get up assuming you will not get some deadly disease.  You switch on the light assuming the power will be there.  You use water assuming it will be there.  You drive down the road assuming you will not get in an accident.  You get the picture here so like it or not there are really few givens, death and taxes and the saying goes.  So it is with investing.  

One can only make decisions based upon what they know and how others will react to what you know.  Experience is more important than intelligence, but of course in this new culture we live in experience and wisdom are not valued among young people who ASSUME they know everything, which has flipped many years of accepting wisdom comes with age.  That simple fact about young people should be kept in mind regarding their impact on the entire economic market environment.  Experience tempered by wisdom has told me that people make the same mistakes over and over given enough time to forget the prior mistakes.  Emotion driven intelligence is the worst decision player in adult life and even we must temper such when dealing with the stock market in times like these.  Our just over 60 years of life on this earth allows us to look back about three generations.  Since most people do not live past early 80's on average the worst mistakes of emotion driven intelligence is forgotten by most after about four generations.  In essence we live making the same mistakes we made in the late 1930's now.  Here is our moment of foolishness in not considering the investing mistakes of the late 1930's when yet another Federal Reserve made the mistakes the current Fed is repeating.  They hiked rates then and the nation took another dip into recession having just finally just emerged from the Great Depression.   Jerome Powell doing the same now means he of supposedly experience and intelligence is not wisely reviewing mistakes of the past.  We also believe he is being driven emotionally to prove Trump will not back him out of a interest rate increase. 

The Great Depression took prevailing interest rates from the high single digits down to the low single digits with the fact housing and big ticket purchases demand was depressed and the new normal was less pressure from what had been surging wages and inflation concerns.  The late 1930's Fed was living and operating in the assumption that the economic normal had not been radically changed by the Great Depression.  The humans running the board made the emotion driven intelligence in their 1920's economy based wired brains that they were right and everyone else was wrong at the time.  Sounds familiar huh?  We today are living in a new normal where housing, automotive, and big ticket demand is much lower than before and certainly more suppressed due to price, just like it was after the Great Depression when more people rented than bought.   We are old enough to remember a time when owning your own home WAS the American Dream.  Now many take it for granted, younger people in this country do not anymore due to the reasons noted above.  Thus the new normal we live in means mortgage rates will be in the 4% to 6% range for decades not the 8% plus many alive now remember as normal.  Take that reduction in the new normal of rates across the board in the economy now as demand is not there anywhere like it used to be. Stores are closing across the land as more evidence.  Like it or not we seem to be in a 2% economic growth future versus a more desired 3% growth economy and the Fed is numb to the real economy once again. 

So the Federal Reserve got stupid this week raising rates and saying there would be more coming.  They are repeating the mistakes of the past as are many in the political field too.  Of course the question for investors is simple how to we, or even do we, take advantage of the current economic environment.  Using experienced wisdom and some learned history and hopefully very little emotion based intelligence we believe the next decade will not be as kind to investors as the past decade.  We do not see a crash, nor anything like a huge downturn in the market.  We do see a lot of backing and filling as the Fed learns from their recent errors and the business world adjusts to those errors, nothing occurs in a vacuum in the investing world. Maybe a good idea that you too go take a look at the late 1930's stock market graph at some point too.  We in our personal account will be dealing with a lot of leverage gone bad, but believe it we stick tight much of the losses can be gained back via some patience and good trading.  It is indeed hard to be patient and not let emotionally driven actions/mistakes take us off our well worn path of success.  We are embarrassed we did not do our due diligence in considering that the Fed would make the same mistakes they made four generations ago as we are a student of history.  We will be more studied going forward tempered by our losses.  If you are young, say under 50, stay the course and accept this market setback is your chance to buy low and let the compounding work for you long term as we did.  If you are older than 50 be careful in investing decisions and do something we will be considering at some point later this year and getting back into the municipal bond market where this journey all began for us.  Indeed if the Fed is determined to push up rates then we should take advantage of those higher rates that frankly are unjustified and mean one can earn good interest in a demand depressed economy.  Never leave stocks in full as Index 500 investing is still the route to safe long term wealth.  

Balance sheet investor, not a profit and loss investor.

Several months ago we were passed on a story about John Howard, Lenoir County NC farmer, who has made very good in his life financially.  He made a comment that he was a "balance sheet farmer", not a "profit and loss farmer".    Now many people would have no idea what he was talking about, but the phrase rang loud and clear in our ears since that is what we do as an investor and up to then never had a name to call it.  

A balance sheet farmer and a balance sheet investor are essentially the same, in that the approach is not to count your profits and losses for the year but to add up your balance sheet and see if you gained assets over the period.  Balance sheet investing along makes one consider the LONG TERM approach with your assets, and not how your balance sheet looks over just one year too.  So many people look at their annual income and say I am rich or I am poor and be done with it, but for those who succeed long term financially that is not the key to success.  The deal here is to be like a squirrel and accumulate assets over time.  Just making money is pointless to good financial health if all you do is spend the income on things and experiences.  You end up no better off at the end of the year than when you started, all be it you might have enjoyed some of your time.  Owning things is usually an emotional experience of buying it, amusing yourself for some time, and putting on a shelf to likely never do much with it ever again. Balance sheet investors instead buy something like a mutual fund, a house, or anything that appreciates in value over time.  Something that pays a dividend via cash flow like a business or appreciates if nothing more via inflationary pressures.  Gold, Bitcoin, or anything that does not have a positive cash flow is useless here and does not enhance your balance sheet over a period of time, other than to give you some emotional comfort.  Those who allow their balance sheets over time to create wealth trust me enjoy much more emotional pleasure via financial security than anyone who just spends much of what they earn. 

Now investing for balance sheet gains, can take several avenues depending on your style.  It can be as simple as taking some of your income and salting it away on a regular basis into a good mutual fund, it can be investing in your business expansion, it can be taking on a failing business that you believe you can turn around, it can be buying real estate, or any number of alternatives as long as it produces a cash flow or has a future appreciative value via that cash flow.  Everyone has their level of comfort investing, but you must INVEST, not save your money in a insured bank account at the local bank or credit union.  Yes even a saving account has a small balance sheet gain annually, but that at best only keeps up with inflation.  One must invest, or in essence, take a risk to gain at and above inflation thereby keeping your true balance sheet growing. 

Over the years having met many people I find most are divided between those who want wealth accumulation over time and those who just see money as something to buy something with at the moment.  Sadly the latter are ill prepared for emergencies and generally never retire with much other than Social Security and/or a pension.  Neither provide long term stability or a decent standard of living when the human body will not allow one to work daily.  

Finally let's note a balance sheet investor does not panic or concern themselves with short term profits or losses, instead concentrating on long term balance sheet gains.  So a down year might make the investor take another look at where they are invested and consider, but they only alter those investments if they see better opportunities for long term gains. 

We suggest most people use a S&P 500 Index fund, we like Vanguard, and take a regular amount out of your paycheck and invest over time allowing compounding to increase your balance sheet.  

We are returning to Our Father's economy.

As we noted in our last post this is a moment in time to relish to be alive, be an American, and most importantly either be and investor or someone using their skill set to advance their personal economic opportunity.  Let's review where we are and where we should be headed in the next few months and years. 

The most obvious fact right now is that the economy is doing very well.  Job creation is accelerating, economic activity is improving, and GDP is growing.   First off let's deal with this 3% growth idea.  We have heard for over a decade that the Federal Reserve throwing trillions of dollars into the economy would wreck the economy by inducing waves of high inflation and disruption in free markets.  Truth is since there was never much demand for that money from new business expansion or consumer demand in effect almost all of those dollars remained in the banking system doing little but earn some small interest for participating banks.  Business profits remained flat in the small business sector and in large corporations since there was almost no increased demand for products there was no need for increased loans for business expansion.   Many large corporations did nothing but increase buybacks with those profits and added to dividends thus pushing up the stock market.  That financial engineering was enhanced by the Obama high tax policy and the huge federal spending that kept many consumers on the government plantation without much spending power.  As we opined many times to be asset rich during the Obama economy was a good thing and government elites and the already well off remained well off.  The middle class and below felt the pain of no real jobs and no increased wages. Going forward the new Trump economy of less regulation and lower taxes will produce 3% plus growth and some additional inflation, but we expect inflation to remain in check since the new economy will be centered more on production than consumption. 

We are not a fan of tariffs, but in the current case we see some long term benefits.  First and most importantly we see the opening of markets in China and elsewhere to our exports as perfect for our unique time in that American consumers, notably younger people, are not spending with abandon.  The recent economic crisis seared many of these people into saving instead of spending.  The result is the continuing loss of retail stores and the weakness in all the retail sector from grocery to clothing. This is further hit with the move to online shopping which is driving costs down and killing off even more retail outlets.  So with an economy that was for decades pushed upward by consumer demand from where does the new growth come?  Simple, exports, and that is already showing up in the recent employment reports with nice gains in factory jobs and the increased spending by businesses in technology and other capital spending.  Unlike others I believe Trump will find a new middle ground on tariffs that will spur even more exports and thus more export jobs.   The fact that America is unique in the world being all but energy self sufficient due to the huge new finds in oil and gas that will fuel these new factories with cheaper than anywhere else in the world energy is a big plus too.  America is moving from a consumption economy to a production economy. 

Now remember all that money sitting in the nation's banks from the recent Federal Reserve easing.  As the Fed draws back the punch bowl also expect some of that money to be lent out by those banks for expansion of factories and business as the export economy grows. Also note that in a economy based on production and exports and not consumption larger amounts of money stays in bank deposits and that in turn holds down inflation and spurs home building and business expansion.  Yes this is the real new normal a new normal that is like the old normal in that America is returning to a export economy with frugal consumers who work, save, and invest and make American great again for themselves and more importantly for generations to come.  We are headed back to our father's economy of after World War Two and we see nothing but positives for all. 

So invest and have skilled employment to participate fully in this American economy.  Betting against American for now going on 242 years has been a suckers bet. 

What a glorious time to be free!

Imagine that next month millions of Americans will get a pay increase, all be it via a tax cut,  that a huge number have not had in over a decade.  From the end of the Reagan Boom in the early 2000's,  through two feckless Presidential leaders, here in 2018 the Trump Boom is on. Decreased regulation, lowered taxes, positive pro growth leadership, has produced a booming stock market, small and large business growing again, and most importantly for those who refuse to live in a Trump hate world a positive mind set that the future indeed will be better than the past.   In our car is a CD that has a song by Steely Dan released in October 1982 that speaks of a bright future, named "IGY What a Beautiful World", the timing was perfect for us as we had just got our first management position and played it often then.   The line "What a beautiful world it will be, what a glorious time to be free"  spoke to our belief that a free market with free people can produce a better world for all.  We refused to play the song for many years since the mindset was America was not of a free people, lately we have played it often with a mind that America is back. 

We dine at a certain restaurant in Raleigh often and have got to know the owner who can also be the cashier, the floor sweeper, table cleaner, and anything needed.  In early January we asked how his business was doing and a smile came over his face that we have not seen in some time.  He noted that business had picked up and he could target the date to the passing of the tax cut.  Seriously people were spending more, came in more upbeat, and in turn he had raised the pay of his staffers sharing the tax cut with them.  We expect this is going on across America now in business small and large, many of which you know about due to press releases, and much more among businesses you will never know about such as this small business owner. We spoke to another business owner last week who told me the concern he had was that his skilled and experienced employees would begin considering offers from his competition and he would be adjusting his compensation to meet the challenge since his business had picked up, he had got a tax cut,  and he could do so now.  Only fools can not reckon that something is going on out there and what is going on is a pro growth mindset that produces increased living standards for all, more wealth creation, and a beautiful world for those willing and wanting to see it. 

The stock market boom has been nothing less than incredible for those of us who have been investing for decades.  As someone who has lived and invested for decades our bed was made some time ago and our creature comfort needs mostly met.  Indeed the current economic environment allows for us to continue to use the experienced and successful investing skill set learned over four decades plus to allocate funds and capital for future growth.  We are participating in this economic boom mostly in increased wealth, some consultation for those interested, and the blessing of getting to see a pro growth economy one more time before we leave this earth.  In truth our children and grandchildren should sleep well at night knowing via us their bed is made and being fluffed up a good bit via our ability to seize the investing moment like few others.  

If you are young get a skill and participate in this beautiful world by offering your skills to the highest bidder, live below your means and invest your savings in stocks.  If you are working now consider increasing your savings rate and participate in this rare investing moment.  If you are older thank Americans that many considered in November 2016 that taking America back to a pro growth environment with a pro American leader would raise living standards for all, offer opportunities for young people not even hoped just two short years ago, give business owners new hope, and make investing for wealth creation great again. 

As we said at the start of this posting it is a moment in time to be thrilled to be alive.  One can go all political here and want the old no growth, financial engineering, high tax and high regulation world back but that is only for those who refuse to take advantage of the opportunities a pro growth economic environment offers.  We want to believe that by November of this year most Americans will consider and decide this America is better than the former 16 years America and decide they like this one better for themselves and their posterity.  We owe our children and future American generations nothing less.  Indeed "what a glorious time to be free" "trumps" the other choice.