Will there be a recession in the future?  Yes, but not like any recession in the past and here is why. 

In my hometown of about 2000 or so there remains one building that was constructed with what is known as WPA funds....or Work Progress Administration....during the Great Depression when millions where out of work the federal government set up the WPA to pay to employ those millions out of work to construct needed assets in towns across the country....such as in my small hometown a water tank, a agriculture building, and the still standing Community Building.  Note I said PAY people to work, not give them money just for existing. 

Since that time and in the last 2 decades Americans how become more and more hooked on government bailing them out of recessions and of late now weather disasters no matter how small and unlike people in the Great Depression who were ashamed to take money for nothing... now people demand such and have no shame.  All this is to point out how far we have come in this country wealth wise.  The fact government provides so much as demanded by the voters allows for enormous discretionary spending since no one is concerned about having food, having medical care, and most of whatever have become everyday needs and now even wants. 

Today one in about 8 households depending on your source is a millionaire household.  We told others some years ago that by 2030 close to half all American households would be millionaire households and we are well onto that happening.  Wealth among the Gen X generation is much due to the fact these people came of age in a hard tough time and many were latch key kids since most mothers for the first time in American history were employed.  These Gen X folks grew up to understand depending on themselves was the only route to go and began using 401k/IRA's early in life and the buildup over 20 plus years has resulted in lots of retirement funds millionaires.  Boomers many of who did not have pensions similarly had some decades to build up assets and their retirees are the largest source of mass affluent households.  The Millennial Generation started saving early have rode the wave of a stock market boom in the early 2020's and of course inflation many register as mass affluent as well or having several hundred thousand dollars in retirement funds.  For reference here the next step up from millionaire is known as Penta-millionaire or having $5 million in household assets....about 1 in 70 households register that class....so lets say Penta has replaced millionaire in this country for a economic status symbol. 

So going forward what we have is lots of households with assets and government backing that up with making sure anyone...not just the less well off....have basic needs covered during economic downturns.  

Now I have been in the working class since the early 1970's and will say since that time only one recession has not been caused by government screwing up the market economy.  The 2000 recession was caused by a huge bubble in dot com stocks and when we discovered that every stock would not be a winner the downturn became a recession.  Every other recession was a government caused one, savings and loan crisis, too many homes being built, Covid foolishness, high interest rates from the Fed, etc. Most recessions are due to voters wanting government to do something to protect them and of course the then every action meets a reaction that is not good. 

Thus now we got tens of millions of households that can spend and spend without regard to how it effects their household and even retirement future.  What you get from that is places like Walmart, Target, and restaurant spending without stop.  When I was growing up we were poor enough going out to eat at a restaurant was a special occasion, now it is done every day everywhere.  Consider where I live now a new restaurant opened this week where one meal would easily run up a $20 plus charge and the place was packed for days.  Women the target customer posted about the excitement of going there soon for days on social media.  Money is no object now for not only needs but also wants with most people. 

We point out all this to note as we have said for some time now we see no real recession on the horizon.  Does not matter which president is in office or who controls the legislature in your state just huge amounts of money floating around out there not only can be spend but will be spent and that keeps recessions at bay.  All be it much of that cash is free money from federal government deficits, but lots of build up wealth, lots of government support for the working and retired class, and the huge change in attitude from the 1930's to today. 

Every generation in America is living better than the just past generation and at a quickened pace too. The so called poor here are rich compared to even Europe, Japan, and China.  Politicians can prey on your empathy to spend more and sometimes tax more since many women are easy empathy targets and the continued increase in beta males are no less empathy targets.  Much of that spending is on transfer money and not capital spending money meaning it goes away quickly into already wealthy hands making the wealthy wealthier. 

Yes at some point this government largess will have to stop or at least slow down but so far not a single Congress or President is willing to do the dirty work of getting it done.  So as long as there are buyers of government debt the government spending will continue, until at some point the Fed will have to step in as it did in 2020 and buy the debt and create inflation.  Imagine the inflation when the Fed buying becomes trillions annually by printing new money.  Inflation yes, recessions do not count in it.