This ain't your Daddy's Clinton NC anymore.

We have a four decade experience in watching the business market in the small town of Clinton North Carolina. Clinton was the first place we settled in after truly leaving home and our home county. We found the people there friendly, willing to us take in as one of their own as someone who was not born there, and lastly it was a vibrant market for business in a predominately rural county.  We consider Clinton our adopted home town. 

Over the next few decades we spend a lot of time in Clinton and Sampson County building up lifelong relationships and business ties that we enjoy even today.  In the 1970's and 1980's Clinton was a farmer come to town market with a growing small urban core.  Most business was locally owned or based in North Carolina.  We remember the predominant retailer at the time being Roses and in the late 1970's that was shook up a bit with the coming of Kmart.  Kmart was the Walmart of it's time and the movement into North Carolina the home turf of Roses was a battle royal.  Over the years of course those two retailers gave way to Walmart and other niche retailers.  Such is the way markets move and adjust to customer buying habits and competition.  Three events in the recent weeks make clear this market is becoming more like national markets as slowly the need to be big overwhelms all other concerns. 

The big grocery retailer in Clinton in the late 1970's was Piggly Wiggly owned by the Lindsay brothers who were locals who prized their links to Sampson County and Clinton.  There were other grocery stores in the area at the time lead by Big Star in Coharie Plaza, which over time left town as did some others like Winn Dixie since competing against The Pig for market share was a losing battle. Customers preferred shopping with someone they knew and would cater to their individual desires even if not as cheap sometimes.  We never remember a time when Jesse Lindsay ever made a move that was not customer centric or more importantly against his religious values.  People in the area found that comforting.  Over time Paramount Foods, the parent of the Piggly Wiggly in Clinton expanded to Roeboro, Newton Grove, and Smithfield.  There was talk of expanding into the Triangle area as well.  Of course that was then and this is now.  Now Clinton has a Walmart with a grocery. Now has a stronger Food Lion that has proved the low price and less space idea to be long lived. But all this goes back to Walmart and the fact that customers are more price concerned and the only way to compete on price is to be able to spread expenses over a larger store base and buy in volume.  So this week the Lindsay family announced they were selling their four remaining stores to Promise Foods a larger store chain. Promise Foods, operating as Carlie C;s, has been expanding their store base over the last few years taking up the IGA store Smithfield and even starting at store in a little served area of Raleigh. We are not privy to the Lindsay's decision making but we expect the much harder to compete in grocery environment of today played a part in the decision to sell.  Customers in the Clinton area as in almost small markets now are not as loyal to local owned business as they used to be as younger buyers tend to be more price conscience and less loyal in buying habits. 

We were there at the birth of Clinton Toyota when Jeff Strickland and Tommy Baker took on the dealership on then Southeast Blvd. in Clinton.  Over the next few years they took a weak franchise and dealer plate to heights no one thought possible in a small market.  Albert Thornton, who owned the Chevrolet franchise in Clinton at the time, marveled personally to me at their success of Clinton Toyota getting out of town customers to come to Clinton.  Intense marketing, narrow than usual profits, and a group of smarter than average people were able to make it happen.  The ideas thought up there were taken national by Jim Moran of Southeast Toyota the regional supplier who knew good ideas when he saw them.  In the 1970's small individual dealers could survive on selling 25 vehicles a month and thrive on up to a 100.  But getting past a hundred or so vehicles sold monthly was tough in a small market and frankly not needed since most dealers owned their local markets via being local owners who invested locally and personally knowing lots of their customers.  Auto dealers then could produce more profits with each sale and make enough money to survive.  Since the need to get bigger did not exist rarely was their a new automotive dealership with more than one name plate. Thornton Chevrolet, Vann Ford, Clinton Toyota, Roseboro Ford,  and Owen Chevrolet were such Sampson County dealers and all one franchise.  Over time the Chevrolet dealership was sold to Steve Stefanovich who united the Rose Buick franchise and Clinton Toyota franchise under one dealership.  Steve recently sold that combined dealership to Deacon Jones Auto Group of Smithfield NC that itself has over a dozen franchises covering  Goldsboro, Smithfield, and now Clinton.   Once again we see the change in the marketplace where spreading expenses over a larger dealership base that allows new vehicle dealers to compete on price.  There is also the added pressure of the national new vehicle manufacturers demanding local dealers upgrade facilities and most importantly service operations to be very customer friendly. That is a large expense item and is reflected in many dealers moving into new buildings and having larger parts inventories.  Hard, but not impossible,  for an individual dealer to compete on this scale long and survive especially when in markets like Clinton where unlike just twenty years ago customers will drive to Fayetteville, Goldsboro, and beyond to compete on price.   Again we are not privy to the decision making behind the decision to sell Go Automotive but we expect the need to grow larger and invest as required by the manufacturer or move on was part of the thinking. One final note here is the push for auto dealers to improve service operations is having a large effect on tire and automotive service dealers who are losing business to new vehicle service bays and we are just starting to see these places like Goodyear, Firestone, and such grouping up into larger store footprints as well.  

Lastly is the move of the Sampson Independent into a new building.  This is nothing more than the local newspaper responding to market conditions of the 2010's.  When we joined this newspaper in the 1970's the press, the news operation, the entire business operation was under one roof. The newspaper had then just recently been bought by a larger southern US based chain after many years of being owned by a couple of local Sampson County owners.  The new owner combined two locally owned weeklies the Sampsonian and The Sampson Independent into one newspaper and went daily. The Independent during the 1970's enlarged the old building site on Elizabeth Street buying a new press and gaining space for distributing more circulars via the home delivered product. Over the years the newspaper was bought by Park Communications and now another large nationwide chain and during those years even more of the operations were centralized in off site locations.  Now with many of those jobs and operations off site we expect the decision was made to move to a smaller building.  Again we do not know if the decision was made due to the need for less space, but we suspect that is so as is we also would not be surprised if the newspaper is renting the building they now occupy.  Renting instead of buying real estate is a way to free up capital both in newspapers and now few national retailers own the building out of which they operate.   

Now this is not to say that being small and a local owner is not a business concept that works, the deal to compete is quite simple either be large or be niche.  Niche marketing is doing something Walmart or larger retailers do not sell or do not do well.  For instance note the concept we just discussed about most businesses not owning the storefront.  In that space has emerged several real estate trust firms such as National Retail Properties and Realty Income who specialize in buying up and owning hundreds of retail properties across the country.  Larger in real estate means like it does in retail business spreading expenses across more stores and cutting costs. This national intrusion into smaller and smaller markets marches on and there is little local communities can do to stop it as it is part of our new normal.  It is as simple as Bojangles moving into smaller towns taking restaurant business away from local competitors.  Again the idea is to do a niche well and thrive.   

There are small business niches too such as locally owned pharmacies who compete successfully against Walmart and CVS providing personal customer care and advice where knowing the pharmacist personally is valuable to many buyers.   Small locally owned restaurants can still do well doing steakhouses that serve as social centers of the community.  Local small banks can provide lending to citizens when a larger bank will not take the risk on a small business.  Clothing alteration shops do business that big market retailers have avoided and generally do not want.   Used car lots provide access to transportation by providing loans to those who can not get lending elsewhere.   Local bakeries provide fresh items to local customers big retailers can not do.  Hair salons provide services to women who can be fickle in their choices.   I remain a believer in the future of the small entrepreneur and small business always doing something better than big business, but the influx of bigger is better in large markets and now small markets means this ain't your Daddy's Clinton NC anymore. 

Making America Grow Again !

The new President is talking policies dear to our heart.  Reducing regulations, cutting taxes, and helping small business bloom is the cure to most economic ills in this country.  Indeed even the budget deficit can be mitigated by economic growth.  For those of you younger than say 45 years old consider the huge economic boom the US had from August 1982 until the year 2000.  

Those of us old enough to remember can point to August 12, 1982 as the exact day that the great Reagan Bull Market began, but in truth the foundation was laid in the spring of 1980 when Ronald Reagan pushed through the reduction of regulations and the large tax cuts that got investors, risk takers, and business people stirred with the visions of profits and opportunity. That economic boom lasted for almost twenty years taking the stock market from 777 to 11722.  That is a 15x gain over 18 years.  We have personal computers, the internet, and many retail chains today found birth during that time that came from the great awaking of the economy due to Reagan. Do your calculating and think about how much new wealth was created during that time and you will know why Reagan was so loved. 

The deal here is rather simple we are going from a redistributionist economy to a pro-growth economy. Wealth redistribution to wealth creation.  The political economy of Obama double dealing with large corporations is coming to an end and they will have to get busy growing their business if they are to have growing profits, instead of depending on government largess.   The last eight years they have only to buy off politicians who via regulations and targeted taxes keep competition at bay and grow their market share in a static market instead of competing in an growing market for share.  The federal reserve which has participated in this game by keeping rates low that allowed the use of static profits to do huge buyback of stocks and increase dividends without having to do much other than exist is going to the sidelines soon. Increasing interest rates will mean a growing economy that absorbs those rate increases in growth.   The great interest rate sale of the last eight years is coming to an end and the rich and elite who profited from this arrangement will soon have to compete for profits. We find this exciting and frankly challenging. 

The last eight years we have opined that just keeping your assets in the mega cap stocks via the S&P 500 would do you well.  Investing with the rich and elite made for good gains in wealth and lots of income too.  Now with a changing economic environment where competition will become the norm one can no longer just invest without considering the risk and opportunities. Risk was not a real concern during Obama's regime if you invested wisely. 

So what is an investor to do going forward into the Trump economy?  First off we suggest continuing to keep a large portion of your assets in the S&P 500 as those big companies can compete and thrive in a growing economy.  Next up consider taking some of your assets and puting them in smaller companies and those with significant growth ahead.  We find Vanguard Primecap Fund and Vanguard Capital Opportunity Fund two cheap and well positioned funds for your consideration.  We will be on watch for other funds that offer opportunties, but moving some of your assets to a total market index is a smart move now.  Both of these funds mentioned are closed currently to new investors, but keep them on your radar as they could open up soon.  Do not get caught up in trying to pick individual stocks and stay away from bond funds entirely since bond funds will get hit with rising interest rates. 

Hopefully the new Trump economy is the young generation's chance to see what Americans do when opportunity and wealth creation becomes the accepted norm.  This new normal is not the old new normal and those who invest smartly, use and invest in their talents and skills, and want to achieve will get a chance again and the opportunity to soar.   We are thrilled to be here once more in our life even if it has been over three decades since the first time we witnessed American Exceptionism and American ingenuity take the world to heights never seen before.  Making America grow again is a good thing, a very good thing.

The Few, The Proud, The Stupid.

We have opined consistently on this blog that almost no one reading it should be buying, trading, or being involved in any way in individual stocks or bonds.  We rarely pass a day where someone does not ask for a stock pick that will make them quick money. There are no real quick ways to make money or find financial freedom via getting lucky by picking the right stock or bond.  Like playing the tables in Vegas almost no one gets lucky and wins big.  So smart people become long term investors by following a simple path.  One, max out your 401-k plan at work which is $18000 for most people. Two, max out your Roth IRA which is $5500 for most people.  All your money in 401k plans and Roth IRA's should be in stocks 100% and we suggest the Vanguard 500 fund which is investor owned, cheap fees, and safe for long term investing. Three, max out your HSA if you have one which is $3250 for most people and put in a good saving account.   Four, reduce all consumer debt in your household to zero excluding your home mortgage.   Lastly if you have done that for all eligible members in your family then if you can accumulate $100k in a low cost brokerage account consider it play money.  We fully expect almost anyone reading this blog will not make it to the last part. 

So that means only a FEW can reach the last part of accumulating enough money past what is needed to invest in retirement and deferred tax options.  Those few of us tend to be retired or investors who are making significant money at their vocations. Those that do reach that point tend to be like us PROUD traders who watch the markets, do hours of research and try to make some bucks by taking risks beyond normal.  Trading stocks, bonds and options like we do is not a place to find yourself.  There is a reason there is a church on one side of Wall Street and a cemetary on the other side.  The trading profession is populated with some of the most obsessive practitioners around.  They tend to be highly educated and posess brain power way beynond most people.  Traders can only prosper by finding a process and working harder, researching longer than anyone else is willing to do.   If you are not willing to get up at no later than 5 AM to begin your day, keep your emotions out of your trades, and discipline yourself to know when to take a loss you will not succeed.  We suggest writing a blog since it will allow you to go back and consider your mistakes and avoiding mistakes are how traders prosper.  Risk happens fast and managing risk as opposed to maxing out batting average is how one makes money trading.  Remember you are taking trading positions against the very best in the business and they are ruthless in pursuit of winning trades and profits and taking your money. 

The STUPID comes in when those of us who trade make a series of winning trades and get cocky.  Yeah you think you are good enough to avoid that cockiness, you are wrong.  All traders get stupid and think they have become bullet proof.  Over the past four years we have rung up a series of winning trades and earlier this year took some positions that have of late being shown to have been stupid.  Stupid, not ignorant, as we knew when we took the positions they were risky, but overlooked it due to thinking we had gotten smarter than most.  Sure enough we sit here in October with some pending trading losses and a wipe out of over half years trading profits.  That will trust us concentrate the mind.  So at the end of this week we will take those losses and proceed forward to right the trading ship by getting back to managing our risk profile. 

The lesson here is be wise and follow our ideas in the first paragraph by being The Few, The Proud, and Financially Free.  Be an investor first and a trader last.

  

How to invest in the coming Clinton Regime.

Like it or not unless there is some serious political changes Hillary Clinton is your President for the next eight years.  Of course there are those of us who frankly see some value in her assuming that position.  Voting for Hillary Clinton is in effect making those of us in the moneyed and elite classes in the United States richer.  Thank you very much.  So what is one to do to keep the cash coming, the assets growing, and living the good life, while others try to reach into the privileged classes and most just accept their place on the government plantation? 

We likely will sound like a broken record here, but keeping up with the Clintons so to speak is nothing more than doing what we have been doing all along to keep up with the Obamas.   The political class run the political economy of government largess to mega sized corporations who pay, legally donate, money to the elite class to keep small business and competitors off their profit gravy train.  This pay for play also works on the regulation side as big corporations get a say in which regulations get done and which ones do not.  Some regulations are good for big companies that can absorb the cost and pass on to consumers, while the same regulations can kill small business.  Such companies as Apple, GE, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon, and the list goes on use crony capitalism to keep profits high with little or no market growth.  Not having to compete with small business nipping at your ankles means you can keep on raising dividends, doing stock buy backs, and keeping the people who have assets in these companies happy and down at the beach. 

The Federal Reserve run by Ms. Yellen keeps interest rates low which means those same companies noted above can do stock buy backs by using record low interest rates to issue debt to do the buy backs.  Note that debt interest is tax deductible too.  If one wonders why the Clintons are doing so well remember that all those billions going into their so called foundation are tax deductible, which means about 50% of the cost of those donations is paid by you the taxpayer.  What a sweet arrangement if you are in the inside looking out.  Low interest rates also means those in the moneyed class and elites can buy homes at the beach, nice cars, and all sorts of lovely luxury items on the cheap with borrowed tax deductible interest, which means again you the taxpayer are paying half the interest cost there too.  It's like having already lower than low interest rates subsidized by another 50% by lower income people. 

So yeah if you are in the elite class you want the Hillary to follow Obama and keep on keeping on with the same policies.  Now if you in the other side of this equation taking government subsistence payments, read welfare, unemployment, food stamps, or just in a dead end job,  you might not like the moneyed and elite's getting the good life and you not having it.  However most just sit back and take the crumbs left over, accept their status, and keep on watching the Khardashians and Hollywood stars dine high and jet off to world vacations.  Some fight and struggle to pay the endless bills and hope for something to happen like winning the lottery.  Either way you are screwed and you are to blame since you allowed the moneyed and elite class to tell you some bathroom occupy bill or some social issue was the cause of all your problems. Frankly the political class laughs at you since you buy into the foolishness and that keeps you from being concerned about your financial situation.   Liberty and free markets be damned if you are told somebody might be kept from screwing some snake if that is their desire. 

Anyway how does one take advantage of the new normal of Clinton/Obama forever?  Most importantly keep your assets in mega or large capitalization stocks like the ones we noted above.  We like the Vanguard 500 fund, cheaply run and keeps your assets growing and of course the moneyed and elites are there too protecting you all the way.  For income we like closed end mutual funds, there are a number of good national municipal bonds funds out there but be careful since many have run up in value due to the demand.  PCI is a good closed end non muni fund paying over 10% right now and is of good value.  PCI invests in mortgage related bonds and other corporate issues and leverages their assets, which means they borrow higher interest bonds and pay much lower borrowing costs.  The key here is the fact Clinton will continue the high regulation and high tax policies that keep free markets from growing and producing jobs and that keeps interest rates continuing for another 8 years at rock bottom.  It also holds down wages since few new jobs means lots of compeition for those available.  So investing in higher interest bonds is relatively safe since the threat of higher interest rates from a no-growth administration keeps the economy near death growth wise.  

If you are not in the moneyed or elite class we suggest you get a skill in a higher demand and higher wage industry and save your money like hell in the Vanguard 500 fund we suggested earlier.  It is possible at some point in your life you will have enough to live the quality life and pass it on to your children. 

So here we sit four months out from a election and enough voters seem to once again be ignorant enough to be kept back on the government plantation or low end jobs by another no growth political administration.  Those of us who prosper either way, no growth or pro-growth, are doing just fine.  Frankly the moneyed class and elites find it much easier to keep the voters at bay with silly concerns about gay marriage and "love wins" postings and just collect the dividends and assets gains than fool with real competition that comes in a pro growth economy. So enjoy your election as we sit on the beach and dine in nice seafood restaurants with our friends.   Anyone know where the Mercedes keys are? 

Up, Up, and Away.

Up, Up, and Away like a big balloon, that is what the market seems to be doing this last month.  If you have done what Small Town Investor suggested you do for going on now about eight years and even more importantly ignoring the bad news bears last fall your investment portfolio is looking quite good. You are most welcome. 

Last fall when the boo bears came out as the market plunged many said the end was near for the bull market that started in March 2009.  We suggested otherwise and said hold your investments in stocks and frankly do as we were doing at the time add some extra money if you got it.  Sure enough except for a early year down period the market has been going almost straight up. Your asset numbers would be looking real good right now compared to those who bought gold or put their money in mattresses.  Even better than those who put their money in US Treasuries who each day lose buying power.  

It has been a great two years to be in stocks and undervalued municipal bonds too.  We advised purchase of NNC and VKI early last year and this year and has it been a capital gains ride.  We are up over 10% in both those closed end bonds funds and that is not including the over 6.5% tax free interest we have been getting monthly on our original investment.  Fact is it always a good time to buy stocks when your investment horizon is long term.  Gold and other such nonsense are well fool's gold when it comes to long term investing.  Nothing, absolutely nothing, beats stocks long term and frankly right on into retirement.  People with pensions have to hope and beg to get a raise and pray their pension funds do not go bust or lose value.  People invested in the S&P 500 stock fund get that nice quarterly 3% or so dividend to spend, the value of their holdings goes up, and the payout increases annually like clockwork.  No begging, no hoping, no praying, just going to bank.  Oh, and the assets they own get to pass on to their children, while pensioners wished they had something to pass on to their children. 

Here is a fact the market will go down one day or even days, but no one has won the bet of betting against the American free market for now going on over 240 years.   So smart people bet on a good stock fund like the Vanguard 500 fund and sleep well at night knowing lots of people are out there working and making money for them and adding to their net worth.  If you do not believe me, believe Warren Buffet who has instructed his executors to sell his holdings and place them in that very Vanguard fund for his wife to live off of upon his passing. 

Borrow like the Rich.

Yes most articles you read try to tell us how to invest like the rich, but sometimes it is better to know how to borrow like the rich.   Now is one of those times.  Bill Gross, who has forgotten more about bonds and borrowing, noted such in a posting over the weekend.  He is a billionaire and like Warren Buffet knows that contrarian investing is the way to serious riches. 

Foolish people borrow for consumer goods and run up credit card balances. Only big ticket items should be bought with borrowed money.  Education and homes are a good example in that borrowing to buy them also offers the chance of both purchases being more valuable in time.  Automobiles, due to the large price tag, are also usually purchased with borrowed money, but smart borrowers use short time frames for their loans.  Foolish people also borrow when rates are high, which generally means the economic cycle is most positive, thinking that the good times will continue and of course that does not happen. 

The economic cycle now is producing the lowest rates in generations.  As we posted a couple of postings ago we expect these rates to continue for some years.  Smart seasoned borrowers are taking full advantage of these low rates.  Corporations are issuing bonds and reissuing debt at these low rates to use the proceeds for other purposes.  Warren Buffet has been using the float in his insurance business to buy companies when the financing is cheap.  Home buyers are buying homes and locking in cheap financing for 30 years.  So how can the average person take advantage of these lower then low rates, other than buying a home.  Simple, find a company that can borrow at these low rates, that is doing so, and buy some shares in that company. 

This morning gave us a perfect example of just that happening.  Annaly Mortgage announced they are buying Hatteras Financial.   Both are basically buyers of mortgages guaranteed by the Federal government.   They borrow money on the cheap in the private market and then buy these mortgages which yield a higher rate and make money on the difference.  Simple business in that they are holding government guaranteed mortgages and the only risk is if the borrowing they have to do to buy the mortgages get more expensive it squeezes their profits.  Annaly is obviously comfortable enough with long term cheap money that they are willing to double down on their business by buying out a competitor.  You can get in on this deal by buying what is known as a mortgage reit.  Lots of them out there, but Annaly Mortgage symbol NLY is the largest and best.  A 12% dividend is the payoff. 

Another way to get in on the borrowing is with what are known as leveraged bond funds. They do basically the same thing as Annaly above but buy bonds instead.  This is done in a closed end bond fund where there is a limit to the number of shares issued.  The fund buys bonds, and then borrows money to buy more bonds and makes additional interest on the difference between the cost of borrowing for the bonds and the interest rate on the bonds.  Again the only risk is the concern over interest rates going up cutting into the value and profits from the leveraged bonds owned.  These bond funds have been rocketing up in value lately as more and more people find these deals.  Most of the slow rabbits have been caught here, but there is still some out there to purchase.  We like municipal closed end bond funds here for the safety and tax free interest.   Invesco has some good ones, so do your shopping, and pick.  We own a large position VKI, which has run up, but still yields over 6% tax free. We are up about 8% this year in value since we purchased in January not adding in the 6.6% tax free yield, which is about 8,8% tax adjusted for us.   Bill Gross suggested taking a look at DPG and JPC, both which are solid choices and safe for long term investing. 

One other choice we like is high yielding stocks, that can borrow for their growing business and pass on the profits to their shareholders.  We posted last time about one such selection in New Media Investments Group.   They pay a 9% dividend, which we think should grow and the opportunity for capital gains is there as well.  We also own a large position in NEWM.

Having money in a savings account at a bank, or owning low yielding US Treasuries in this environment might give you a sense of safety, but you are earning basically nothing on your money and only helping the bank and the government do well.  So consider some of the alternatives above and begin borrowing and making money like the rich. 

A Newspaper Life Continued.

We did not retire some eight years ago to do newspaper consulting, but frankly we have found continuing our association with the newspaper business personally rewarding.  So as we sat in the chair in the prospective new building we had a chance to consider how much, or maybe not how much, the newspaper business has changed over these past several decades. Indeed now into our 41st year of working with the community newspaper publishing business, as a employee and dept. head and now as a consultant, we find not as much as changed as others would have you think.  

The reason we were in the vacant building was this was a prospective site for the moving of the newspaper operation for which we are currently doing some consultation work.   The new location was being considered since the printing of the newspaper is now off site and the shrinking of the staff means the publication is using less than half of the current building.  Smart business says move and lower the monthly costs of running a 30000 square foot building and help the bottom line.  We agree, but in truth this is not a sign that the newspaper business is dying, but in our opinion actually cleaning up some efficiency issues and becoming a more profitable business for their owners. 

For years we have told those who would listen that newspapers having once been a monopoly operation made bad management decisions and inexcusable business choices that were being protected by just that monopoly status of consumers having few other choices to get news but by newspapers.  Organizations that value consensus promote average people and during that time newspapers got lots of average owners and publishers who made non forward thinking decisions since the idea was to not rock the boat.  During the 1990's and into the early 2000's big chains kept on buying newspapers at prices that were absurd since the idea of continuing to have 30% plus margins would pay for those foolishly high prices.  When consumers finally got another choice, the web, early in this century all those bad decisions on debt finally took hold in those chains that had leveraged up too high, such as Lee, Freedom, and McClatchy, who could not meet their high indebtedness with shrinking revenue bases.  Today I still wonder if some of these operations will survive the next decade.  Freedom is already gone. On the contrary smart operators like Jim Boone and Warren Buffet bought properties with cash or real estate backed loans that assured they could make payments and keep the operation running on cash flow.  

So yes newspapers have changed a good bit, but frankly not as much as one might think as we see well run local newspapers as a solid choice for a future and growing business.  In fact we have stated several times in meetings that if we were 30 years younger we would be buying newspapers ourselves and doing the due diligence of getting their business models intact and watching the cash flow grow.  The prices being paid for newspapers today is what it should have been all along and with the middle teens margins they are in line most other businesses too.  The idea of having printing done at a single plant where several newspapers do their printing should have been the model all along. The thinking of keeping expenses tight and pushing for extra revenue is frankly learning to operate in an competitive environment is just what any other business has done for thousands of years. We in the newspaper business are back to what is well normal for any other business. 

If you do not believe it consider that Warren Buffet, not exactly a fool, is buying local newspapers. Jim Boone who I highly admire is in his eight decade and has bought over a dozen newspapers in the last four years.  New Media Investment Group, run by a hedge fund billionaire, is buying newspapers as fast as he can find ones who want to sell.  Note ALL these buyers are looking at good sized community newspapers in the 8000 circulation to 30000 circulation range.  They, like us, see the metro newspaper model as dead.  In a metro market there are dozens of choices for news, in small to medium sized markets there is usually one, the local community daily or weekly. 

As we have suggested earlier if you are interested in buying into the newspaper business via owned stock there are two good choices now.  One is Gannett, symbol GCI, which owns a good number of medium sized daily newspapers across the country and has a low debt load and secure dividend around 2%. We believe GCI is priced at a fair price and not a buy currently.  The other choice is New Media Investments Group which has a large and growing medium to small newspaper group with a low debt load.  Symbol NEWM, currently has a right at 9% dividend. We believe that dividend is secure and likely to rise over time as NEWM buys properties. We personally like New Media since the recent sell off to around $15 per share for capital gains and of course the nice dividend.  We own a sizable number of shares now and will be adding to that share base after the recent sell off.  

The newspaper business is not dead if you know where to look and our involvement in the business continues so we believe via that inside involvement and knowledge of the financial structure of the two companies noted above they offer compelling stock purchase opportunities.