Thursday, September 1, 2011

The current market.

The current market continues to trade in a narrow range, but in my thinking the bias is down.  There is an obvious absence of buyers and with that scenario any little negative economic event could send stock prices tumbling. I frankly am surprised the market has held up as well as it has now. The economy is not growing and might be contracting. There is the obvious lack of leadership in Washington and no desire to do what needs to be done to turn things around. Trust me there are ways to turn this economy around, but the current administration is not going to do it since that is not their approach. One will note that almost everyday the market starts up as bargain buyers do some selective buying and as the day progresses the traders sell into the strength. That is a basis for weakness in pricing of stocks. O course as I said with the economy bad there is no reason for stocks to go up.

One will note that the S&P trades in a narrow range here 1100 to 1250 here and we are at the top of that range currently. I would be surprised by a breakout to the topside anytime soon. There is some talk on the street that the market might begin pricing in a one term president here and if so you might see some upside as fall begins, but buying into such sentiment is suicide for investors and traders if you are willing to take that bet. Friday's employment report will move the market some, but in this environment where there is the expectation of a bad number that is likely priced in. Friday might find some weakness from traders wanting to get out of positions before the long weekend. All of this is short term trading, not investing.

Smart stock pickers will take any weakness here for buying long term holdings in good dividend stocks. CTL, T, and PFF all offer good buy and hold opportunities. If you are more risk adverse, ERF and JNK offer good upsides as well.

I currently hold long or option positions in all stocks listed except T.

                

No comments:

Post a Comment