Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Some truths about oil in the USA.

 For many years I have followed and invested in the oil and gas industry and believe maybe not being an authority I do know some truths about the oil situation as it is now. 

1.  The US now has within it's borders enough oil to fuel all our needs now and for the foreseeable future. The finds in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford region of Texas brought forth via fracking and new technologies make it now possible to need not one drop of imported oil from the middle east or anywhere else. 

2. Ditto for gas, just lots more.  We are floating on a ocean of natural gas in this country. This is the reason most utilities are changing from coal to gas electricity generation.  Add in that many long haul trucking companies are looking to convert their fleet to natural gas as well.  Natural gas is cheap and going to stay cheap for a hundred years or more due to the huge abundance we currently have in the ground.  If you have something that can use natural gas such as stoves or heating consider changing over from whatever energy source you are using now because it will likely save you money. 

3. In fact we have so much oil and gas in the USA we will begin EXPORTING it next year.  You read that right we will export it next year to other countries who do not have the technology and expertise we have to get at what they might have underground.  Check out the prospects for Chimera Energy for the first company that will begin exporting. 

4.  I expect you are asking why are we exporting energy and not using it right here in the US instead of continuing to import from the middle east or Venezuela who frankly do not share our values and sometimes outright hate us.  The reason is quite simple Barack Obama, Democrats, and environmentalists do NOT want us to us our own oil resources.  They currently are directing tax money to failed firms investing in wind, bio,  and solar energy.  All these excepting maybe solar have no hope to give us the energy we need at a price we can afford.  Both wind and bio are not only expensive, but have environmental issues of their own.  Solar has finally reached a point where it is affordable, but the issue with solar is that it takes up so much land space we simply can not produce enough to make enough energy to be worthwhile.  Besides using farmland and clear cutting forests to solar farms is not a good idea. 

5.  We are currently paying about $1.00 more per gallon at the pump than necessary.  The reason is that Obama will not allow construction of a pipeline from Canada to our oil refineries on the Gulf coast to refine and compete on the world oil market.  The Keystone XL Pipeline would pipe oil from the also massive oil resources of western Canada is being blocked by the administration and would add tens of thousands of jobs to build the project are being lost.  That oil would drive down prices due to the glut of oil it would impose. 

6.  Like it or not the oil companies and environmentalists are in bed together.  Yes, you read that right big oil companies make huge contributions to The Sierra Club and other big environmental operations to help keep much of this new oil from coming to market.  Much of those contributions are via bogus organizations so you need to look hard to find them, some are right out front and oil companies say they are trying to buy influence which is not so. The environmental lobby in turn does their part to force government to impose restrictions on use and drilling for oil to suit their aims. Talk about strange bedfellows, but it goes to prove the old adage that if the people and firms invested in having a problem would go away the problem would go away too. 

7. Last point and most important how can one make money on this information.  First off note the cost of oil coming out of the ground is more expensive than it used to be since the technology needed is much more involved.  Canadian oil is even more expensive due to the labor and capital required to get it processed so even with the best of environments with a true free market oil at the pump is never goring to see sub par $2.00 again.  Arab oil is cheaper to pump, but add in the cost of transport and you bump that up a good bit.  Not to mention the constant worries of something blowing up in the middle east and the cost to insure again such happenings. However much of the North American market is switching to local sources of energy and despite being higher in price is all but a guaranteed delivery.   For the next couple of years the refiners such as HFC and marketers such as COP offer good value via a solid dividend and good upside in stock price.  Long beleaguered ERF has finally hit bottom and with it's large footprint in the Dakota range has got some good upside along with a nice current dividend.  For those swinging for the fences LUKOY is a good choice. DVN offers significant upside potential as well.  The Eagle Ford play in Texas has been a gusher of late but many of the slow rabbits have been caught there. 

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