Update on Some Prior Stock Picks.

Some other stocks that we follow and trade with some updated comments on each. We currently have positions in all of them expect SO. 

BP...We have had this stock in our trading portfolio almost all of 2013.  We believe most of the downward bias in this company is now priced in the stock.  With a PE of around 5 it is hard to see it drop lower.  The press has moved on to other issues and BP has been using the lack of press coverage to fight back against some dubious claims on the trust fund.  BP has also used the time to realign their asset base and redefine their business to higher growth prospects.  There is also the continuing rumors of a takeover by Exxon or another big oil company supporting the shares.  We like here around $40. 

CTL... Centurylink has frankly got us concerned.  The company remains a viable long term business and has slowly moved their assets to higher growth areas and away from legacy line wire business. However the change over has slowed and the missteps by management this year have been a concern. The stock has responded by moving downward all year.  We still believe the dividend is safe at this lower rate and the company will soon switch over to reporting profits as their carry forward losses dwindle.  We would be careful here in buying shares and if own them might lighten up a bit.  We continue to consider dropping it from our trading portfolio is weakness persists.  We like it close to $30

LO...Lorillard continues to prosper selling cigarettes and is in the forefront of the new e-cig business.  The dividend is safe, but the company is not safe from Obama.  Once the 2014 elections are over there is the risk Obama will lower the hammer down and try to ban menthol cigarettes.  No longer needing the black votes who generally smoke the most menthols he can let lose the regulations. So there is danger here, but the risk is mitigated by the high payout.  We prefer it closer to $40. 

JCP...Will Penneys survive?  Who knows?  It has a cash reserve courtesy of Goldman Sachs, but the cash is secured with some of the valuable real estate.  We see little of no growth for Penneys going forward, but we personally see the company surviving. The product mix and the positioning of lower middle class makes for a sweet spot of retail.  They have decent shopping experience stores and lots of merchandise.  Add in we are going into the best season for the company to make up some lost ground.  We have a significant position and might add more.  Our position is at $10, but one could buy it around $12 and be well positioned. 

SHLD...If you want a wild ride try Sears Holdings. Under $30 one month to over $60 the next month. This stock is for the brave and nimble trader.  We like it under $40, but with enough room will trade it higher.  The real estate is unencumbered by debt and the management , be it not smart retailing wise, is smart money wise.  Sooner of later Eddie Lampert will make a move and I want to be here when he does do so. 

HFC... We continue to like the refiners here as long as Obama does not allow a pipeline from Canada.  Higher prices for refined gas from lower priced crude makes refiners a sweet spot here and none other than Warren Buffett see it too.  We like HFC due to being the lowest PE of the group and sitting on top of the West Texas oil boom.  Nice dividend and solid capital gain prospects. But close to $40. 

AFL...We continue to like the duck.  Good safe dividend.  But what we really like is the low PE where we believe the stock to be under priced.  Any buy below $60 should get one in good for some long term capital gains. 

SO...This former super safe stock remains on our watch list and frankly here at $40 or so the bad news might be baked in, but with Obama's EPA you never know.  If it dips below $40 we might dive in since the price will become most compelling for a regulated utility and one in a good regulatory area when it comes to state government issues.  After all these EPA mandates are eventually paid by ratepayers and not the company.