Bulls and Bears and Pigs.

Effective with this week's trading we will be dropping ARCP and KO from our trading portfolio.   ARCP, which we took a position in at $12.50 is now trading above $14.20 per share.   If you had followed us into this security in January you would be sitting on a 14% increase with the monthly dividend over two months.  This triple net REIT is still a great long term holding, but we are traders so we move on.  We believe ARCP is now close to being fully priced, not overpriced, just fully priced.  There is likely some additional gains here to be got upwards to the middle $14 range but we will leave that gain to someone else.  We never take the last penny in a profit.  That rule is simply this bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.  Other better opportunities await. 

KO which we considered a sold off blue chip has turned into a sold off value trap.  Even with it being one of Warren Buffet's largest holdings we have exited our position in Coke.  We will take a small loss here and move on. We had thought KO was under priced, but the latest earnings report tells us this stock might have some additional down side and very little short term up side.  Again bulls and bears make money and being able to 

 take a loss a move on is part of being a smart trader. 

We will be replacing these two securities from a basket of three stocks which with this posting enter our portfolio. 

The first new stock is CHL, China Mobile, which is to China what AT&T and Verizon is to the US.  With over 700 million customers this mobile phone operator is by far the largest in China and the world.  The PE is around 11 and the stock has sold off a bit recently.  The stability of the business and the addition of Apple products this year should help buoy and push up the price going forward.  The almost 4% dividend adds to the allure.  Strike price of $46.

The next new security is ALL.  Allstate is a mega sized insurance company with a 11 PE as well. This stock has sold off some then back up a bit since the recent cold spell in anticipation of a large number of claims coming from the Northeast US.   The best time to buy insurance companies is when they have sold off due to claims concerns, because once claims are paid, the company raises premiums and recovers their lost asset base which in the end increases overall profits.  We will be targeting ALL at $50 hoping to catch a deal here. 

We also will look at adding more AAPL to our portfolio.  We currently have a half position in Apple, but believe the company is valued right at a 12 PE and the downside is now traded in which offers some opportunities to take positions at a lower strike price to make some profits.   Our current position is at $475, which is safe.  Our new position will be at $500.  If AAPL continues to languish here we likely will consider another half position as well, making us have one and one half positions. 

Lastly updates on two long positions we hold. One NNC, which we bought at $12.01 is now trading at $12.51.  We suggested this security back in early January at $12.  We still expect some additional capital gains into the $13 range.  Add in a 5% tax free dividend.  Two MONIF, Monitise, is a speculative play which just reported interim results which we believe were solid and suggested this company is on the right path towards this stock doubling or tripling in the next year or so.  Maybe more further out.  Still a good buy at around $1.25.