Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Boo Birds Wrong Again.

We follow several stock market bears, if for no other reason than to see their thinking, pick off some investing ideas, but more importantly to keep our long term bullishness grounded.  

Being a stock market bull is easy and hard these days of regular Dow records.  We have opined we think the market might be a bit ahead of itself, but that is what markets do look ahead and looking ahead and seeing a business friendly administration in Washington, continued cutting of regulation, and even the most moderate of tax cuts which will keep more money in the hands of those who know how to efficiently use it. Government can tax and spend and run up debts, but ANY money not taxed is kept in investors and consumers hands and results in more jobs, more capital to increase overall wealth, and less control by government.  Trump understands this concept. 

Those of us highly invested in stocks have enjoyed the rise up since Trump became president.   4000 points has been nice for those who own stocks and especially for those who invested in the S&P 500 Index as we have long suggested.   So at this point you got two camps, one thinking the market goes up and up and those who think we are headed for a big fall.  We have no idea where the market is headed, but what we do know is the stock market is symbolic of American economic growth and betting against America long term is a suckers bet.  Even if we finally get that long expected correction of say 10% or 2300 points anyone fully invested would still be way ahead of those who sat on the sidelines scared of a market fall.  The Boo Birds as we call them have been wrong now for some years, but trust me any hint of a stock market going down and they will be out again saying we told you so.  Then when the market goes back up again as it surely will, they will go back into hiding.  One has to wonder if they take their own foolish advice and put their money in the mattress or something. 

So keep invested and do not worry about the dips, especially if you are young, as young people should consider a sell off as a blessing to buy more shares at cheaper prices for the long haul.  We personally in our trading portfolio look constantly for stocks that have taken out and beat down good as they are prime candidates for recovery.  Consider this moment in time another opportunity to get and stay invested for the future, YOUR future.  The biggest mistake we ever made was to listen to the Boo Birds and stay out of stocks for many years.  We imagine how much more we would have if we had invested and stayed invested for another maybe ten years.  Compounding of your growth is the greatest part of investing.  The younger you get started the better, time is more valuable than the amount you invest.  Also do not forget to invest in yourself.  Your skills in the new economic market are the key to personal satisfaction and the your prime source of investing capital. 

I have opined before up until about 1880 the most valuable asset one could own was land, from 1880 until about 1985 the most valuable asset one could own was a factory or some building out of which one could sell something. Since 1985 and increasingly so the most valuable asset one can own is a skill set or intelligence to create something than improved upon an existing approach. So it is with Amazon looking a second so called headquarters or you looking to improve your standard of life in the future. Those thinking ownership of real estate and/or ownership of production of low value added goods are the path to wealth in the future are fools. Go learn a skill like plumbing or technology, a practice like management or health care if you want to be one of the high achievers in this century. Otherwise accept lower pay and a lower standard of living. The beauty here is only a few could own land in the 1800's and only a few could own a factory in the 1900's, today anyone can own a skilled or practiced mind and unlike land or buildings one can sell the use of your mind to the highest bidder and can use the leverage that if not compensated correctly can move those skills to another bidder at the time or your choosing.

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