Yes, they really are Two Americas.

Some weeks ago we had lunch with a high income high net worth person who had been introduced to us with the idea they might want to consider doing stock and bond investing and trading our way  

The lunch conversation was about how smart investors and traders survey the financial and political environment and do not try to change it,  but rather take advantage of it. Simply put the country is becoming more and more divided between those who are upper middle class and above and those who are lower middle class and below.  There are less and less people in the once largest American class the true middle class.  This is the result of decades of public education doing a worse and worse job of educating the middle class on how to achieve the once wonderful American Dream of financial security at some point in their lives.  In has been further pushed by the erosion of a common core of values held by most Americans. The results of this downsizing of the American Dream is clearly shown in Friday's jobs report where despite being hailed by many as great the truth is we continue to replace full time higher pay jobs with part time and lower paid positions.  All this is being embedded into place by current political economics and financial engineering. 

Thus we have a situation where there is less hope to improve one's life and even less desire to do so. However for those who have made the jump to the shall we call it "good life" the opportunities to keep that way of life are quite numerous and most rewarding financially.  We have long opined here that with Obama the federal government has embedded in many Americans the desire to just accept what crumbs of money and goodies the government gives you plus  maybe some part time with no future employment as something everyone in the lower middle class and below should be just happy with and be quiet.  On the other hand these same political policies that involve lots of deficit spending have lead to the situation where those who have made it in this country along with the financial engineering by the Federal Reserve of low rates which enable mega sized corporations to pay good dividends and buy back stock make the upper class richer by the day.  Those in the upper middle class and above see the federal government largess under Obama as being nothing more than throwing some candy to the masses to keep them quiet, while the better off dine out well, drive fine cars, and vacation at their beach homes. 

This is not the way it should be or has been in America, but until someone pulls the plug on this arrangement at the ballot box and in their daily living values it will not change.  As I said to my lunch person "it IS what it IS whether you like it or not and only fools do not invest and trade with the flow." There are days now when we wonder if America has finally jumped the shark and can never find the American exceptionism that once made us the land of opportunity for anyone who wanted to try.  We have traded equal opportunity for equal misery, unless you happen to be blessed to be in the priviledged class. Most days now we consider ourselves blessed we are not in the bottom group. Most days too we wish we knew how to change the dynamics to the way it was when everyone had a good paying job with a future and the chance to move up in lifestyle and leave a better American for their children.  But until that day when the masses decide they too want a piece of the good life and elect pro growth politicians who EXPAND the wealth pie, instead electing those who think of just dividing the pie that is there we will do as others are doing in the upper class and above and continue to take from the lower middle class and below and expand our own personal wealth.  This is the side of the so called financial inequality that one must as we said go with the flow. 

If you have any chance to get into the expanding wealth category your best option is to avoid the masses and get a good paying job of those few that are available by learning a skill that is in demand then investing your paycheck like a religion in mega cap ETF's or mutual funds.  Savings rates of at least 15% and preferably more is needed and put it on autopilot. As we have suggested here ad nauseam use Vanguard Funds as your investment choice, which are cheap and investor owned too. Yes we all hope that new policies will change the current economic landscape, but smart people know to work hard and go with the flow. 

Joe Sugars of St. Pauls 1916 to 2016

Maybe the most enjoyable of my experiences growing up and spending most of one's working life in a number of Southeastern North Carolina counties are the friends one meets along the years.  in January 1982 I got to meet someone who would teach me as much about marketing in 30 minute visits each Tuesday morning as any college course could ever do. 

In early 1982 I began work as a retail advertising salesperson with the Fayetteville Observer and took on the Robeson County route.  Part of that route was the weekly stop at Joe Sugars of St. Pauls NC clothing store for their weekly ads in the newspaper.  Frankly I was not prepared for the first experience of walking into this clothing store in the small town of St. Pauls. By small town I mean something like 1000 population tops and a small main street of at most two blocks.  But I went to do my first call on Stanley Sugar at his clothing store in this small town pulling up to a store that was from the outside rather normal for a town this size.  Into the store I went and unto my eyes I see on table after table thousands and thousands of pants, hung in rows thousands of dress coats, and stacked on shelf after shelf thousands of shirts, and huge selections of absolutely everything a well dressed man would need. Thus was Joe Sugars of St. Pauls NC and their slogan "if you got a figure we can fit it" because they have a piece of men's apparel for every need for any size man. Also in almost any color too. Seriously this was and likely still is the most men's apparel one would will find  under one roof in one location on the East Coast.  

So for the next decade plus of serving the newspaper advertising needs of this clothing store from my posts at two newspapers I got the priviledge of spending some time about once a week with Stanley Sugar, who was the second generation of this soon to be 100 year old establishment. Stanley would always run a series of small ads each week in the newspaper touching about every day and almost every section of the newspaper.  Simply put he did this since he knew most people would look at certain sections they favored and almost any ad no matter what size would be noticed if the ad had something worth reading.   He would tailor his business card sized ads for the particular section of the newspaper it was in such as women's section, sports section, general news, etc.  He would generally come up with a new group of ideas each week too in what I quickly realized was a fertile mind of marketing ideas.  He would do the original pull an envelope and get a discount ads and would go clever with "closed Wednesday afternoon, but open late Saturday to make up for it" ads. He had a picture in his store of a very old looking man that was labeled "35 year old clothing merchant."  His dressing rooms well...err...ahh.. were labeled X rated, R rated, and G rated but all were in good taste.  He had a plaque with the words " Price is what you pay and value is what you get and those who consider price alone are another man's lawful prey."  To this day I have that plaque on my wall as well as I considered it wise advice. 

On the days I would go pick up his ads I would either go to the back of the store and get them or go to the shoe sales area where he would be sitting and doing some book work or just taking a break. Here in the shoes I would get my masters degree on how clothing retailing and marketing worked and how it would apply to other businesses too.  Stanley had a wonderful dry sense of humor that everyone would enjoy.  One day I asked him what type of customer he liked to do business with best and he said it easily would be a salesperson of any type, in that they always needed good looking clothing for sales work and would buy his wares on sales and on non sales periods too.  Just fine customers who would not quibble too much and he would do all he could to keep their business.  As for the worst customers, he said easily lawyers and doctors, who would complain about the offerings he had and then complain more about the price.  He noted they would try and "Jew" him down with one of his great laughs.   Stanley being a Jew himself made the comment most funny. Stanley took his store, employees, customers, and family seriously, himself not so much. 

I always found it cool and rather nice that Stanley Sugar successful clothing merchant and first in the nations now cool trend of wearing outlandish colored socks would take time to school me a young advertising salesperson.  Over the years I discovered if he really liked you, he really liked you, and he would take time to chat even during a busy day.  Later in his life he was wanting to pass on his store to family and was working on convincing his young nephew and the store's original owner namesake Joe Sugar Jr. to come take over the business.   During the period of decision I told Stanley that he was having problems getting young Joe to come forward that I would do him the honor of marrying into his family and converting to Judaism if he would let me take over the business.  Stanley laughed so hard he about feel out of his chair, then said that might have been the most honorable offer he ever had.  Friends could talk with Stanley that way and I considered myself blessed to be a friend of many years. 

Stanley passed on sometime later and indeed his family took over the store.  Joe Sugar Jr. as expected became owner of the now almost 100 year old establishment.  Since I retired I do not see Joe Jr. as much since my dress up clothing needs have dwindled a bit.   However my main navy blue blazer in my closet as I write this is still labeled Joe Sugars of St. Pauls.  As Stanley taught me now those almost four decades ago no well dressed man is without a good quality navy blue blazer in his closet as they go with many dress pants and make a man well dressed.   So sometime next during the next 6 months I am going to drive the less than hour drive down I-95 to St. Pauls and get another blue blazer in a toast to Stanley Sugar my old friend.  Might even walk around the store and think about those days we used to talk in the shoe dept.  Hopefully Joe Sugar Jr. will read this and invite me to the 100th Anniversary event sometime next June 2016. In the meantime if you have not done yourself the favor of checking out this one of kind men's store do so and you will be glad you got to know Joe Sugars of St. Pauls. NC.

               

Ode to Jim Parker

Even across the room my old friend and boss recognized me with his now 91 year old eyes. There was also that twinkle one would always see in his eyes when he saw somebody who had worked with him and enjoyed doing some catching up. Those who worked for him know about that twinkle.  I had come this November 2015 day to Clinton NC in response to his son's book signing event in his former hometown, but in truth I was really there to see my old friend who a former newspaper co-worker had alerted me was to be there. 

It was now over 37 years ago that I walked into his newspaper and began discussing the advertising job opening he had due to the recent promotion of salesperson to advertising director at the Sampson Independent.  Little known to me at the time Jim Parker had already pretty much decided I was the one he wanted to hire since I came with then some over 3 years of experience doing what he wanted to me to do at his newspaper, sell advertising  We talked that July 1978 day, and he and his new advertising director sized me up, and they offered me the job on the spot.  Never in my over 3 decades of seeking employment did I get that and on this day I was more than ready to accept since I was ready to come home to Eastern North Carolina from a time working at a newspaper in another state.  

Even today I consider the next nearly four years working for Jim Parker, and the next decade getting his advice before he retired,  maybe the most satisfying and most learning of my life and career. Over the four years of working at The Sampson Independent I would meet several lifelong friends. Over the next four years I would find enjoyment with working with a group of professionals still unequaled in my career.  Over the next three decades many of those I met there would keep in contact and consider ourselves blessed to have come together at that moment and that time. 

Jim Parker was without doubt the person with the most integrity, most class, and the finest boss I ever had the priviledge with which to work.   I expect he knew he had assembled a special team at the Sampson Independent during those heady late 1970's days of the newspaper business.   Jim knew to just point us in the right direction and let us go and good things would happen.   Good things did happen too not only in advertising revenue, but also in news and advertising awards, quality of work done in all the newspaper's departments, and lots of good times for those working there.  One of those times of one being at the right place at the right time. 

That group also did something else too in the newspaper industry I expect is unequaled today.  The Sampson Independent trained and sent out more publishers and newspaper department heads at that newspaper and to other newspapers that of my last count was more than four dozen. For a small daily newspaper of just under 10000 circulation that was unheard of, but then again Jim Parker was a special boss and special person who knew who to pick good quality staff.

Jim Parker literally oozed integrity when he spoke and when he directed staff.  Jim got his honors through the years, NC Press President for a term being one of the best known, but I expect knowing him the most joy he got was watching his employees grow in the newspaper profession and do well. One could tell that from that twinkle again in his eye when he spoke of someone who had worked for him and went off and did good as they say. Jim respected us and pushed us to achieve to our best and in return anyone who ever worked for him never had a bad word to say about him and would perform at their highest level to get his approval. 

So this weekend in Clinton I got to talk newspapers and other topics with my close friend Jim Parker and for a moment relive those wonderful days of working with him at The Sampson Independent all those years ago.  Of course during our conversation Jim Parker made talk of his old newspaper there in town and right on cue as the old editor made points of criticism about how he thought they could do a better job of covering the news.   Riding around Clinton before I headed back home I got to revisit some old haunts and rode by the newspaper office that is still there after over four decades plus.  What I would give to go back and do it all over again. 

Thank you Jim Parker for the memories, the years of setting an example I always wanted to live up to, and most importantly the personal approval that comes from those who see that twinkle in your eye and know that means they are and will always be part of your extended newspaper family. 

The Economy remains Stuck on Stupid.

Stock market sell off...check.   New US House Speaker...check.  New US Government budget...check. Paris terrorist attack...check.  Nothing, no one, not a single activity can change the direction of this market.  That direction has been for over 6 years an uneven but steady climb upward for mega and large cap stocks.  Indeed no government policy or business policy has changed much either and we do not expect much change until at least Spring of 2017 and even then it is a big IF.  

We are as they say "stuck on stupid" and for those of us who have held and are still holding mega and large cap stocks we say "thank you very much."  For those needing jobs and those needing good paying jobs the tide is out and will be out for at least another two years or maybe longer.  For those needing higher interest rates that tide could be out for years.  So holding US Treasuries or buying CD's for safety has been less than rewarding and mostly a fools errand.  We have been stating and posting for some time now there will be no interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve for at least until late 2016 and we doubt any then.   The economy is just not capable of withstanding a rise in rates and with an election season upon us there will be none. 

Keeping up with inflation, or what used to be called inflation is pointless.  Witness that Social Security gave no increase this year and likely will not next year either.  Witness mortgage rates back down in the 3% range.  Here is a fact you can take to the bank. If you are in a business that needs human capital, or is human capital intensive, we would highly suggest you start considering another profession unless you are old enough to run the clock out.  Human capital, otherwise known as jobs, is a receding expense in most businesses due to the advance of technology.  McDonalds and Walmart are fast approaching the point where robots and such will replace higher cost humans.  Only in businesses where experienced or well trained human capital is needed is there job safety.  We say all this to note one of the reasons inflation is dead is that the highest cost of business which tends to be labor is fast losing the ability to ask for more compensation.  So the need and push for higher interest rates follows the inflation trend. 

So the beat goes on and we remain stuck on stupid.  Financial engineering by large cap companies buying back stock and increasing dividends to reward those with assets.  Political economy rewarding those who do not work, will not work, or feed off the government largess of the spending of those same non workers.  Crony capitalism remains alive and doing this well and those of us who have assets say another "thank you very much." 

As we stated in our next to last post the Doom and Gloom crowd, which is always wrong, has gone completely into hiding with the recent stock market surge back to this summer's highs.  They will likely stay there awhile, unless so real global crisis occurs such as someone gets mad and enters someone else's safe space, and even then if a terrorist attack can not stop money movement what can?  In any case keep your assets in mega and large cap stocks, mutual funds, or ETF's and enjoy the ride.  If you need a job, maybe even a high paying job, since you have been unable to figure out how to get on the government plantation gravy train of not needing a job, we suggest you consider electing a pro-growth President and Congress next time.  Of course with the two leading contenders not being pro-growth that might not be in the cards.

               

Our current stock option trading portfolio. November 2015

This is our trading account stocks.  We look for value stocks that have little downside risk. Rarely do we trade stocks with over a 15 PE.  These are not suggestions for purchase, just a listing of stocks we prefer to trade at this time. 

AAPL..One of largest positions.  We continue to favor Apple for it's customers addiction to their products. Safety with little downside risk.  

AGN..  Biopharma with a solid cash position and low PE.  Has been sold off recently making it attractive. 

AMGN..Note comments above, just Amgen is a older company with even better base of support. 

BAC..Huge bank, one of big four, that is selling for less than actual book price with lots of upside potential. 

C..Another of the big four banks that is selling for less than book value. 

CHL..We like this Chinese telecom that is the worlds largest cell phone provider. 

CSCO..No one does much in networking without using something Cisco makes in routers. 

FB..Facebook is the future of the advertising platform.  The only stock with a high PE we own. 

GILD...Another biopharma that has sold off making for a nice entry point. 

JPM..The largest of the big four banks and selling at the lowest PE. 

JNJ..This is the largest pharma stock by market value and we like the safety. 

MRK..Large pharma that we like at this low PE. 

NEWM...We have been disappointed in this stock.  It has all the right ingredients for capital gains.  Good business idea, buying at good value, and making the most of efficiency in operations.  A nice high dividend too.  The only problem is that the market has not though the same. We continue to own it long for the nice dividend and possible capital appreciation. 

NNC..Our largest long position.  Closed end bond fund that has produced capital gains and steady tax free income for some time now.  We might lighten just a bit here if we sense a rate hike. 

ORCL..The biggest business software company in the world at a low PE. 

PFE...Large undervalued drug maker. 

T..Telecom provider that we like for the fact people who hooked to their phones. 

VZ..Telecom provider that we like for the fact people who hooked to their phones. 

WFC..Price has sold down for reasons we find silly and we really like it now. 

WMT...We believe Walmart has sold off too much for the world's largest retailer. 

              

Oh where, Oh where have the Doom and Gloomsters gone?

Fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly, girls gotta text, and if there is a 1000 point sell off in the market the Doom and Gloomsters will come outta their caves.  Only a few weeks ago the D&G crowd came out and announced the end was near and the market was going down more thousands of points.  Ahh...well today it is well ahh...up about 1000 points from the point it was announced it was going down for the count.  What happened? 

Remember when your humble blogger, OK well not your so humble blogger, was pounded by numerous posters on Facebook and elsewhere that we did not know what we were posting about and should go away and shut up.  That the market was going down and our advice for investors should be to sell everything, put it under your mattress, and hide under the bed.  Can not tell you the number of inside messages we got from registered representatives who could not rebuke such talk and wished they could but due to RR rules had to remain silent.  Well your humble blogger here has not such rules since we trade and invest in our little private account and private hedge fund we can say it loud and clear,  "YOU DOOM AND GLOOMSTERS WERE WRONG AGAIN !!"  

These D&G creatures come out because frankly they do not have the experience and most importantly a history of personal former mistakes in the market.  They do not listen and read intently to a sizable audience of market and financial opinions to understand what they do not understand.  We would expect they get much of their so called knowledge from such sites as Zero Hedge and Peter Schiff etc.  We too take a look at these sites regularly, but only for amusement and to see if we missed anything important.  On the other hand we daily kept abreast of other bloggers such as Doug Kass, Larry Kudlow, John Tammy, and a couple dozen more diverse opinions.  We use over 36 years of market experience which includes a combinations of technical and fundamental analysis to daily trade and lifetime invest.  In the end our lifetime of results speaks for itself and that is the steady compounding of investing and reinvesting to produce a build up of wealth that is tax advantaged. 

So where is the market going from here?  We got that down too and unlike the D&G crowd we will absolutely positively guarantee we will be right.  There are two scenarios.  One, we are in a market that resembles the late 1930's in America. Interest rates are low and will stay low for a good period here, we are talking years maybe decades below 5% mortgage rates. Just not much economic growth and not much reason for business to reinvest profits.  Therefore profits are being reinvested into their own stocks via dividends and stock buy backs.  That means anyone who is invested in mega and large cap mutual funds or ETF's will do just fine and grow their investments about 6% to 7% for as far as the eye can see.  Not bad if you just leave it there and let it compound over a lifetime.  We suggest a cheap expense Vanguard 500 fund or ETF.   Just add to it in a regular savings via an IRA or 401-k and it is even better since it is tax advantaged.  Anyone who bets against America long term is a fool and has been made a fool for some over 200 years. 

Now there is one other scenario but it is only better.  That is American voters, more specifically the young folks, figure out that voting for gay marriage and free birth control does not fill your gas tank, put food on your table, or grow your retirement nest egg the best. The under 35 year old crowd will discover what the 35 year old to 55 year old crowd already knows and that is we need some leadership in Washington DC that makes me wealthier by growing this economy, creating jobs and making my wages go up.  They together find that leader, vote them in, and experience what the over 55 year old group experienced with the election of Ronald Reagan that lower taxes, lower regulation, and free markets make everyone better off in the long term. In this scenario the young folks experience a renaissance of Free Market America and live a 30 year boom too. Businesses quit increasing dividends, stop buying back stock, start growing their business, the Federal Reserve goes into hibernation, and stocks grow 9% to 12% annually.  If you want to see what 30 years of 6% compounding versus 12% compounding does to your retirement assets go to your online computer and see how the millions, yes I typed millions,  add up. 

So as we opined on our last posting, "Young people this is your economy and you get to choose if you want to live in it". your choice  and your life, scenario one or scenario two.  We guarantee you get to CHOOSE one of the two choices.

              

Young people this is YOUR economy and YOU get to choose if you want to live in it.

Janet Yellen said it all last week in one simple sentence that almost all financial and news reporters just let blow right over their head.  Not surprising of course since 95% of all news people are Democrats and have at most a 6th grade education regarding economic matters that they could care less about learning more about anyway. Actually it comes down to one word she said during last week's press conference after the Federal Reserve meeting.  That word was "involuntary."   As in involuntary part time workers.  

That involuntary workers theme was the primary reason the board left interest rates at virtually zero for about the 8th year running.  Truth is despite the rhetoric from Obama last week about a great American economy our economy "sucks" as the young people would say.  As in there almost no growth and no real job creation, beyond part time.  Not to mention so many people have dropped out of the labor force and on to government welfare of some sort as to depress the participation figure to right at an all time low. 

A no growth economy is not a good thing unless you are in an industry that is basically bullet proof to economic concerns. Only two job types seems decently secure right now,  something in the health care business and on the government payroll.  The first though is subject to economic concerns when things get really tight, but on the other hand a government job is as secure and worry free as they come if you can get one and most can not.  Only the privileged few have one. 

So if you are living in the real world where business conditions are important to job security and for many level of income indeed economic growth is important.  History rhymes but rarely repeats.  We are reliving the late 1930's economy right now in America and now as then it is not a pretty story.  Going back to Ms. Janet and her no go interest rates we too are reliving the late 1930's there in that the rate then had been at zero for many years and finally in 1937 they moved it upward ever so slightly and the bottom feel out of the economy.  So Ms. Janet and her gang are left wondering if they too are going to repeat history with a small push up in rates.  Then World War Two saved the economy, so maybe something will bail us out again, but that obviously is not the best scenario.  We continue to say no interest rate rise until after the 2016 election if for no other reason, political concerns. 

Life cycles repeat about every 80 years on average, since generations are about 20 years long, it takes about 4 generations to forget about stupid mistakes we made in the past and repeat them again.  History is a constant move upward in technology and medical achievement and such, but human nature never changes.  Greed and fear have been constants for thousands of years and will remain so for as long as humans reside on this ball of dirt.  So despite great progress in standards of living human nature forces foolish repeating of forgotten errors in judgement.  

So the response to the Great Depression was a huge growth of regulation, taxation, and overburden of small business where real jobs are created.  The result then was government created jobs where one person was paid to dig a hole and another person was paid to fill it up.  Sounds great huh?  Well remember the only way we got out of that mess was to blow up the world with war for 4 years with lots of death and dying and in 1945 got to sorta start all over again.  So what has been our response to our own Great Recession,  yes you got it more regulation, taxation, and overburden of small business, where now the rhyme to dig a hole jobs has been lots and lots of part time jobs with no benefits and not future.  Even the full time jobs that have come about are based on very shaky business going forward.  

Now we can sit here with our Obamacare, Dodd Frank regulation, and taxation of small business or we can do something about it like change leadership in Washington.  The good news is that most states in the country have changed leadership and those states are slowly moving forward even with the heavy handedness from Washington DC.   Young people this is YOUR economy and YOU get to choose if you want to live in it.  However you only get one chance to make a difference as once this no growth scenario is locked in you can stick a fork in it as you and your children must live in your new normal created world.  Maybe you like no growth and hoping to win the lotto game of getting one of those safe and secure government jobs? But most of you will lose that game.  In 2016 you get to choose your fate and your future economy and yes even your future life style.  Make the right choice and life will be more than hand outs and low expectations.  

Voting for Hillary Clinton makes people like me and her richer day by day.  Hillary and I are part of the political economy and financial engineering of the Federal Reserve that keeps the goodies flowing to us with accumulated assets and away from young people trying to accumulate those same assets.  We with assets enjoy lower than low interest rates since our futures are tied to banks and the ALREADY financially secure class and frankly since the current resources are so small we much prefer not to share.  On the other hand you can burst this little rich folks bubble with a pro growth pick as your leader who will not only deregulate, but also lower taxes, and clear the mine field for small business for some FULL TIME job creation, but more important do all this without a world war.   

Your choice, your future.  I will be sitting on the beach watching if you too will repeat history's mistakes.