Sunday, April 20, 2014

April 2014 Trading Portfolio

Our trading portfolio has done very well this year.  Only one meaningless small loss against several dozen closed positions. Concentration on mostly low PE solid companies with little downside risk. Highly leveraged portfolio remains which points out that risk happens fast. 

AAPL...Continues to trade within a nice pattern from $500 to $550.  We own options at $500 and $490.  At a PE of around 12 forward earnings we see little downside risk and lots of premiums from option writing.  

AFL..Solid blue chip insurance company which we have at $60 strike price.  At a single digit PE we find this steady eddy quite safe for trading.  Little downside risk as well. 

BP..A PE of around 6 makes this oil company a bargain. As the legal issues resolve themselves there is good upside potential here and almost no downside risk at our strike price of $45

C..Another single digit PE stock and trading below book value.  Again little downside risk, but also little upside potential until they get their act together. We trade it at $46. 

CSCO..Continues to trade between $20 and $23 and shows no serious break out action so we trade it at $20 and sleep well at night. 

HFC..Continues our holdings of at least one stock in the oil refinery patch.  Another single digit PE that we trade with lots of room to move down at $42. 

IBM..Warren Buffet likes it so we will continue to trade this at $175.  Around a 12 PE.  Just got hit hard due to weak earnings report and offers good opportunities for trading at a low point. 

JPM..One of the few banks that have got back to a solid profitable level.  We trade it at $52.50 and another single digit PE. Even thought WFC has more upside potential, JPM is under such heavy regulatory pressure the price is suppressed to a point where downside risk is minimal. 

O..One of our favorite stocks of all time.  It continues to increase profits as a blue chip triple net lease operator.  We trade it at $40 with some interest rate risk. 

OCN..Newest addition to our trading portfolio from Doug Kass Katch file.  Expectations of improving sub prime mortgage market gives us belief our strike price of $35 is safe.  Only for the serious trader however since any bad news could send it down quickly. 

PM..Traded at $75 we are most comfortable with this high margin cigarette maker.  E-cigs continue to be an issue going forward however. 

SF..We have added this one of late as well.  Traded at $40 gives us plenty or room for this high growth financial company.  Again not for home gamers. 

SHLD..Lots of risk, but also lots of option profits.  We like the real estate story and not the retail story to keep the value here.  We trade at $34, but will likely move it down a bit when current holding expires since the stock took a hit after the latest spin off. 

T...Solid blue chip telecom. Trade at $34 and are comfortable, 

VZ..Solid blue chip telecom.  Trade at $44. 

NNC..One remaining long holding. Average cost at  at $12.12 with stock trading at $12.74.  Net asset value at $14.74 it still has some room to run.  Added several hundred shares last month and will likely add some more this month.  

              

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