Johnston County Commissioner...Cookie Pope the long standing commissioner is facing Smithfield Fireman Patrick Harris. First run for Mr. Harris. Maybe Mr. Harris is setting himself up for when Ms. Pope retires, but we see Ms. Pope winning by a comfortable margin. Too much history and too many voters who know Ms. Pope. Cookie as she is known to just about everybody in the county broke the Democratic hold on the Commissioners back in 1994 and is fondly remembered for that. Mr. Harris is doing a good job presenting himself as new blood on the county board and that is likely to get him some votes. We know of Mr. Harris and think he has lots of credentials to be a fine commissioner but we expect his association with the Town of Smithfield and it's issues is going to drag down his chances this time. If he ends up losing maybe the time between now and next time will offer some opportunity for the Smithfield taint to go away. However if Mr. Harris pulls off an upset it would show that voter concerns about current county leadership is stronger than we think presently.
Johnston County Clerk of Court...This is the race that will bring out the voters this round in Johnston County. In our opinion this race has changed some in the last month. A month ago we would have said either David Ford or Michelle Ball would win with the 40% needed to avoid a run off. However Keith Branch from what we hear is closing fast. How fast remains to be seen. So now we expect a runoff, most likely between the aforementioned Mr. Ford and Ms. Ball. Note that there is no old establishment Republican candidate in this race. We find that interesting due to the long tenure of power in the Republican Party that political machine has had in the county and this post is one of the top county office posts. Note that District Attorney Susan Doyle did not draw a challenger either after several attempts to unseat the current DA by the old establishment. Add in that Sheriff Steve Bizzell who was a Republican before it was cool to be such in Johnston County did not draw a challenger either. All that to say that the old line county power base has slowly eroded with the huge population gains in Northern Johnston and for now the Sheriff and DA posts are likely set until someone retires or quits.
Johnston County Commissioner...This one is the race we are watching most closely in Johnston County. Chad Stewart is from the old line county Republicans, Keith Brinson is from mostly the new county Republicans. Both must reach Clayton/Cleveland/Archers Lodge voters to win. We have no idea who win will as this one is going to be close in our opinion. Mr. Stewart is using his connections to help with his vote and after what appears to us to be a late start is working hard to retain his appointed seat. Mr. Brinson is working quite hard too and seems to be everywhere in the county and has used the new social media in a way no other county level candidate has used in the past. Gun to head prediction is Mr. Brinson pulls off a squeaker, which would say the county power structure has shifted for good. If Mr. Brinson wins his use of the social media could transform how future local campaigns are run in this county. Full disclosure here we serve on a board with Mr. Brinson and have donated a few bucks due to the friendship, but that in no way clouds our opinion as we want to get these predictions right.
Congressional District Seven...Woody White surprised a lot of people with a vigorous campaign. David Rouzer having just missed last time is now widely known in the district. Mr. Rouzer seems to be everywhere, either attending a gathering near Wilmington, speaking in Bruinswick County, or back home in Johnston County. This race will be closer than expected, but we believe Mr. Rouzer will win and part of that win will come from a higher turnout from the highly contested Johnston County Clerk of Court open position. Those same extra numbers should vote for the county favorite son and give him enough votes in Johnston County to win the district in what is normally a slow turnout primary vote. We also think that the last week's hard hitting ads that Mr. Rouzer has been running has helped boost his lead in this race a good bit. Full disclosure we have contributed more than a few bucks to David Rouzer's campaign.
Congressional District Two..We will review both parties primaries here. Republican Congresswoman Ellmers versus challenger Frank Roche. Despite the desire on the more "conservative" side of the party here, Cong. Ellmers should win the primary. Cong. Ellmers seems to be everywhere like the Energizer Bunny all over her district and it shows she is not taking anything for granted. As for the Democratic side of this race we think Clay Aiken had the lead early on, but now believe Keith Crisco has done some hard work and exercised his huge party connections and will in the end win the primary. Full disclosure we contributed some bucks to a joint fundraiser that involved Cong. Ellmers.
House District 26...Leo Daughtry has held this post for as long as most can remember, we see no reason at this election to say he will lose now. This seat is his until he decides to retire or gets caught...well you know that rule.
US Senate Republican Primary...If there ever was a race that displayed the split in the state Republican conservative and moderate wings this one is it. First off we believe Ms. Grant has little chance to win this race, but after watching her in several debates find her most appealing politically and would strongly encourage her to run for some other positions. A state council run we believe would be a place to start in 2016 or how about the Governor getting smart and appointing her to a position where her skills could be used. Mr. Harris might be the most likable of the candidates, but we expect many Republicans in the state will sense his closeness to a church will hurt him in a statewide race against sitting Senator Hagan and he will come up short here. However how many voters he pulls will make a significant impact on IF Mr. Tillis, who is the frontrunner, can pull off the 40% threshold to avoid a run off. Dr. Brannon appeals to the conservative base of the party and if there is a run off will be the one who ends up running off with Mr. Tillis. A runoff would likely not be good for the Republican party in November. However Dr. Brannon has hurt his chances with a civil lawsuit of late that he has not cleared up to many Republicans liking and frankly came across as sorta hard edged in a couple of debates with the other Republicans. Thom Tillis, the so called establishment candidate seems to be pulling away in the last week, but some of his latest endorsements such as Jeb Bush and John McCain is not a plus in our opinion. In the end we believe Mr. Tillis will avoid a run off with just over 40% of the vote, but it could have been higher if not for some of these latest endorsements.
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