Yes we really bombed with the May primary predictions. But this is a new day and new predictions are needed so let's take a look at some local, state, and national races we consider competitive and size them up. We may be often wrong, but we are never in doubt.
Johnston County Register of Deeds... Michelle Ball we believe did every event on the county calendar, visited about every nook and cranny in the county, and even did a round the county tour. Ms. Ball did what we would do as a candidate in a county where it is hard to reach people via the media and that is retail politicking via handshakes and getting face to face with voters. Michelle Denning has also got out , but as best we can tell not to the extent that Ms Ball has done. In our opinion this county has not seen someone as adept at winning votes and doing politics like Ms. Ball since current Sheriff Bizzell. In the end unless Ms. Denning can find someway to change the dynamics of the race the advantage Ms. Ball has with an R by her name in Johnston County it is likely too much to overcome.
Seventh Congressional District....David Rouzer has done more than his due diligence in this conservative voting leaning district by getting out and taking nothing for granted. We expect this race might turn into a laugher in the end due to his hard work. We frankly are impressed with Mr. Rouzer's not measuring for drapes early and that could bode him well if he wins.
Second Congressional District...What could have been the toughest race for Rep. Renee Ellmers could also turn into a wider than expected win in this district. Ms. Ellmers who seems to be the energizer bunny has got out among her voters and business contacts and let people know she wants their vote just like a first time candidate would do. Her opponent Clay Aiken who we frankly believed could have won this district has been hurt by poor use of resources and not finding a way to make Ms. Ellmers make a mistake that the national media could pounce upon.
NC US Senate....This race that could have been a fairly easy win by Thom Tillis has been made harder by what he allowed to be done to him in our opinion. He allowed Sen. Hagan to paint him as anti-education early on. The most important rule in campaigning is to NEVER let your opponent paint you something before you do likewise to your opponent. All of the education ads are frankly a outright lie, but this is politics and that means hardball is allowed. Ms. Hagan is frankly a bad candidate and comes across so on in person and on television is a bit better. That is why she skipped the last debate. Mr. Tillis would have been smart coming out hard and early on at Sen. Hagan painting her as nothing more than a stand in for the unpopular Obama. The recent ruling on gay marriage is bad timing for Democrats since it will energize some social Democratic conservatives that might have sit home and small numbers will mean a lot here. We also believe black turnout needs to reach towards 30% of the electorate for Sen. Hagan to win. Sen. Hagan must win Wake by 12% plus percentage piling up votes in their liberal leaning county to win so keep an eye on those numbers in Wake early on. We have gone back and forth on this race for days and only now believe we see a winner. The early vote in our opinion was won by a percent or two by Mr. Tillis by older voters coming out strong. Rural Democrats seem to be breaking late for Mr. Tillis and if that continues as we think it will into the election day run of about 50% of the entire vote Mr. Tillis will pull this one out. Add in we think that we will know the result by 10 PM or so as others like us will be checking the votes in Wake to check if Sen. Hagan has done well enough there. Yes we are going against many pundits here but we REALLY think this is the end result.
NC Senate...The Republicans will remain in control of NC Senate, but lose 3 seats. Loss of super majority.
NC House...The Republicans will remain in control of the NC House and lose 4 seats. Keeping their super majority.
National US Senate picks. Republicans pick up West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Colorado, and Iowa. New Hampshire, North Carolina are close toss ups but should swing if the Republicans are having a good night which we believe they will. Watch the Kansas race as possible loser for Republicans. If things are going really well for Republicans Virginia and New Mexico might flip as well. Lastly do not be surprised if Angus King in Maine decides to caucus with the Republicans if they win control. Sen. Mancain in West Virginia might switch parties as well. Finally I count 9 new Republican seats net.
Important Race to watch...Florida Governor. If Crist pulls this off beating Scott that says two things. One Florida voters are out right stupid picking the sleazy Mr. Crist, much like Virginia did with Mr. McCauliff last year. If Crist wins in Florida that might will bode well for the 2016 Presidential election for Hillary Clinton. Virginia has turned from red to blue in the last few years and Crist winning Florida would mean that state is not far behind.
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