Friday, December 26, 2014

Our Mistakes..

We make mistakes.  We suggest stocks that at some point after our suggestion to buy have issues.  So let's review some of our recommendations and our current opinion on those selections. 

ARCP...We really really thought this REIT had their act together.  But we were not the only ones as several big bank lenders kept piling in the cash so the management could buy retail properties.  The dividend rate was stable and secure per their quarterly reports and the spin offs of shopping centers made lots of sense too.  Then they bought big into the Red Lobster real estate.  Too big in our opinion and we backed off a bit thinking they had too many of their eggs in one basket.  Of course they finally jumped the shark with the killer statement about "accounting issues".  Accounting issues anywhere means run.  We never lost money here as we exited our positions early on with that having more to do with luck than smarts.  If you are holding the preferred stock you likely are ok, but if we were holding the common stock we might consider it time to take a tax loss and move on as these shares are not going anywhere real soon. 

TPL...Texas Land Trust peaked out at over $200 per share and have of late settled in around $!25 or so.  As we mentioned early on if you bought in this would be a wild ride and it has been and will continue to do so.  The deal here is to hold on and be one of the last holders when the trust liquidates.  It is a game of chicken and Russian Roulette rolled into one and only for the serious gamblers and big boys. 

TCAP...Triangle Capital has sold off a good bit since we suggested their purchase.  Now settled into around $20 we still like TCAP.  In fact we will go as far to say it is an outright steal here.  Dividend over 10% and one of the best CEO's around who will move on from their hiccup of a quarterly report.  We personally are looking for a place to move in, but will wait until after the New Year to avoid the tax loss selling. 

DOLN...We did not outright suggest the purchase of Dolan Company, but we did say the risk might be worth a few dollars.  We hope you only had a few dollars in this dumper since it declared bankruptcy last year.  The money you had is completely lost as a shareholder.  Bad, really bad management can not be overcome even with decent opportunities for profits is a lesson well learned again. 

CVE, ERF, COSWF...Who knew?  Almost nobody thought oil prices would crash and if you owned any of these stocks noted here the pain has been intense as all of them act as owning a oil well yourself.  We only like one of them right now and that is CVE.  CVE has said their now 5% yield is sustainable and they might be right, but we urge caution and only risk capital if you buy in. 

SBY.. We honestly thought the housing market would take off in 2012 since rates were below 4% for 30 years loans.  The feds were in the game helping people buy and lastly there was a huge market in young people needing first homes.  This made for ideal conditions for renting homes and buying homes reconditioned from the housing crash in 2009.  Not so as what we failed to see was the fact most people were getting only part time jobs and most young people were having issues with even these low payments.  Thus nothing housing related improved or has improved since the so called recovery has begun.

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