Predictions for 2015

It's that time of the year for predictions so we will post some of our own.  Often wrong, but never in doubt. 

1. The stock market will be up around 6% to 7% this year and it will again be lead by the mega cap stocks meaning those over $200 billion in market value.  Some of the $150 billion plus stocks will join that group this year as well so if doing your own picking check those out as well if you are into individual stocks.  Look for single digit or lower than teens PE's.  We again like Vanguard's large cap funds for most people.  One can not go wrong with VFIAX by just buying and forgetting. 

2. Best stock value of the year.  Triangle Capital,  symbol TCAP.  This stock has been beaten down mercilessly for reporting some small bad credit issues last quarter.  The 10% plus dividend will not be cut and the stock rebounds 25% making for a nice 35% annual gain. 

3.  New Media Investments, symbol NEWM,  proves us right as the best current long term hold.  This company that is the holder of a large number of medium and small daily newspapers will prove to be a solid buy advancing from the current price of around $23 to past $30 by year end.  Good dividend payout remains as well. 

4. The market will have at least two corrections this year and those who hold mega cap funds and stocks will ride right through them untouched. Stocks, not mega caps,  in industries being sold off will take the pain and stay down. 

5. Interest rates will remain flat.  The Federal Reserve wants to move rates up, but stays on the sidelines as they watch the housing market go nowhere another year and Obamacare pinches full time employment in small businesses and the economy remains too weak to raise rates.  This continues to make our selection NNC a safe choice for yield and capital gains potential into 2015. 

6.  Housing, which is absolutely essential to a growing economy, remains on the sidelines with no growth and with mortgage rates remaining near 4% for a 30 year loan.  Go buy a home to live in, not for an investment (unless at the beach),  if you have not already and lock in these generational low rates. 

7. By the end of the year it will become clear to everyone that Jeb Bush is going to be the next US President. He will win over most independent voters and even some democrats to take a solid lead in the polls versus Hillary Clinton, who will be burdened by Elizabeth Warren and Bill Deblasio.  Bush is the safe choice for the well off, both democrat and republican, so he will gain steam throughout the year. 

8. The NC Legislature will continue to play chicken with real financial reform and do nothing to change tax schemes or any other reforms either.  Hey guys cut income taxes to zero both individual and corporate and end the energy subsidies !!

9. Dan Blue will decide to run against Sen. Richard Burr and be immediately deemed the one as all other democrats drop out of the race. 

10.  Gas prices will remain low as Saudia Arabia will continue to use their clout to bludgeon Russia and Iran. US companies will do as they always do and find ways to cut costs and keep right on drilling.  Obama will veto Keystone Pipeline after having passed both houses of Congress. 

11.  Apple, symbol AAPL, will remain the bluest of blue chips this year and when investors get worried they will pile into the stock as a safe haven for it's super safe dividend and addicted group of users.  Buy some very early in the year and hold. Better than owning US Treasuries. 

12.  For those who like to take real risks in picking stocks, but some Media General, symbol MEG.  This company has consolidated lots of television stations in media markets where politicians will need to spend millions in 2016 election and the company will see profits soar.  It has debt and it has risk, but it also has as it's largest shareholder Warren Buffet, which is not widely known. 

13. Super safe 5 stocks diversified.  APPL, XOM, GS, VZ, and PM. 

14. Super risky stocks for best chance at big return.  TCAP, NEWM, MEG, GILD, and BP. 

15. Sears will be gone by the end of 2015.  Ditto Radio Shack.  Add in one metro newspaper or newspaper chain yet to be named.