Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The Animal Spirits are strong in this One.

As of this summer we have been trading stocks, bonds, and options for 40 years.  Seems like just yesterday we took the dive into our first investment security which was not a CD or savings account.  The first security was a $5000 NC municipal bond which paid a then outrageous 10% plus.  Seriously it was during the huge increase in interest rates the Fed was pushing in an effort to tame inflation in the late 1970's.  Of course the bond got called in mid 1980's as rates came down but at that point we were already into stocks and options trading and never looked back.  

The animal spirits were raging in us at the time and we allowed experience and yes some big losses to teach us how to trade and how to make money doing so.  Only a very very few do trading well and trust me almost everyone who says they trade and make big money is lying and bragging.   If they do not have an even bigger retirement account than trading account they are  bragging and they are stupid on steroids.  Ask them if they are so good at trading why are they not retired from a day job and trading full time. 

After 4 decades this is our swan song as at the end of 2019 we plan on putting up our trading shoes and move on to better choices.  Eleven years ago we retired much earlier than most people could or would dare to do so.  We will at some point in the next six months wind down our account to the point there is only some long term holdings.  There might be some tag ends trades that will be needed as we move into 2020, but those will be to clean up and close some positions. 

We consider the last 40 years as a blessing as trading and investing has brought us financial security of the select few.   Using some smarts, LOTS of learning and experience over those 40 years also means we are doing something special in leaving at the top of our game.  At this point in our trading career we honestly believe we have learned most of the ins and outs of trading and investing and could make much more going forward.  But as we did eleven years ago we also have considered our mortality and wish to make the most of the years we have left on this earth.   Essentially as we noted going out on top. 

In that our final long term trading assets must be positioned for the future and we have decided in a high concentration in two stocks, which will be about 60% of our entire portfolio going forward.  Those stocks will be Amazon and JP Morgan Bank.  We see these two companies as being the safest with the most capital gains opportunities in the next decade.   We will likely throw in a smallish position in Facebook with the rest of the portfolio.  

For good measure here we will reveal our final trading portfolio stocks for the final six months.  All we consider good choice for traders and individual stock buyers going forward.   Amazon, JP Morgan, Facebook, Apple, AT&T, Verizon, Wells Fargo, and Walmart.  We also currently hold Google and we will likely drop Google shortly due to slower growth over valuation.   If one is looking a good dividend portfolio going forward, JP Morgan, and especially Wells Fargo are good values here.  One we do not hold Dominion Energy would be a good dividend addition as well.  AT&T and Verizon are fairly valued and good dividend stocks as well.  Apple is concerning right now. Walmart a steady eddie.   Amazon is easily the best choice for future growth and JP Morgan is the bluest of blue chips and pays a nice and increasing dividend.  Facebook the best of breed for consumer growth here. 

We will likely continue to post on our blog from time to time, but most about investing, not trading.  If you have questions still feel free to message us as many of you do as I will always be alert to market conditions and the economy since even not trading as Warren Buffet has suggested the best portfolio going forward is a high concentration in the S&P 500 index and some cash.  The only question now is can we keep the animal spirits in check after January 2020 as the it is strong in this one. 

No comments:

Post a Comment