Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Market getting frothy.


This week is my normal trading week where I place option trades and make cash flow. Monday I placed several trades in the morning and a few in the afternoon as the market closed down. Since then I have watched the market move up in a steady pace for the most part doing nothing.  Moving up even more are dividend stocks which seem to to be the flavor of the month now. Even with the market basically flat today the march upward in dividend stocks has been relentless.  I expect much of this is investors and savers searching for yield since CD's and Treasuries offer little of that now. All this is well and good since I have suggested such for many months in postings. However what is happening now is that many of these dividend stocks are being bought in such volumes the prices are moving into territory where any let up in purchases will come back as a sell off in price, when all it would be is the end of strong purchasing. 

That likely would be discouraging to those who are buying it now and tend to be novices. What I am saying is be careful in your purchases right now and look and see if the stock you are considering has moved up significantly in price in the last 30 days or so. A 5% move up is likely a sign it is to be avoided right now.  Tobacco stocks such as RAI have already been removed from my portfolio and I am likely to do the same for MO.  LO is borderline.  Ditto for many utility stocks such as DUK and SO, both of these are being chased by investors and I would advise purchase at a lower price. Tobacco for the most part  above 6% is not a value, utilities above 5% are not values either. Even the retail reits are moving up a bit much. Considering reits do not command a qualified dividend only the safest justify purchase under 6% or so. 

I have halted option sales currently to wait for better opportunities. However I would still consider AGNC and CTL at current prices ok for purchase.  For the more risk adverse ERF, JNK, and even PFF are still fairly priced.  If you believe in gold , GG has backed off in price and might be worth nibbling at now. Be careful out there. 

I own everything mentioned in this posting as either a long or option, except GG and RAI.

                 

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