Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Can not get a job? Here is one reason why.


All public policy has unintended consequences. For some reason politicians believe if they will do something, pass a bill or just make a policy decision, the action will result in exactly what they want to happen results wise. Does not happen, will not happen.  The simple fact is that every action by anyone, including politicians, will have a dynamic effect on someone else who will respond to that action with their own set of changed actions.  Static results are not possible.  Only fools think otherwise. 

Here is a way to show the point. Congress raises tax rates on someone or some company. The person or company contrary to what you might have been led to believe will not just pay the tax and move on. The taxed entity will look for ways to avoid the extra tax and most times can find a way, sometimes by either stopping or doing less of the action that is being taxed.  Take regulations on home building. Seems simple that a governing board can say something like do not build in a restricted zone, but the person owning the restricted zone will find a way to make the zone unrestricted. In Southeastern NC there was an area that has the endangered woodpecker nesting in pine trees. Sure enough the US Game and Wildlife came in and said no one could build on the property. So the landowner came in a cut down every single tree on his land making it impossible for woodpeckers to nest making the land unrestricted again. This stuff happens all the time. 

How does this relate to your not finding a job?  The Federal Reserve has forced by monetary action all interest rates down from what would normally be 2% or 3% in this economic environment to almost zero for banks other lending institutions. Mortgage rates which should be 5% or so are now below 4% for good credit. All this interest rate push down is for two purposes. One to try and stimulate the economy that is near death growth wise and two most importantly to keep US Treasury lending rates ultra low to help with the huge federal deficits and debt. The more Obama spends the more the Federal Reserve will do their best to keep rates near zero.  Just a tick up to say 2% would blow the doors off the country's economy with a blow up of the national debt servicing of interest owed so high the country could collapse. Therefore the policy decision to spend and spend is making interest rates necessarily very low.  Maybe for an extended period too. 

These low interest rates have also had a dynamic effect on people older than say 60 years old or so. The savings they have accumulated over 30 plus years of work and set aside for retirement is not earning 4% or 5% CD rates anymore but more like 1% or less and therefore they can not depend on that savings account interest payout to pay their way in retirement. So these same older people have reentered the job market and displaced the younger set.  These older people have better long earned skill sets and frankly will work cheaper than younger people who are raising families and paying off mortgages. All this displacement is also setting back the younger workers from getting employment to buy homes and begin saving for their own retirement.  Unemployment rates for those under 30 is almost 50% due to the dynamic effects of these policy decisions. 

Yes, these policy decisions are not the only cause of less jobs available, but trust me they are a substantial reason. So anytime you vote consider not only what the politician say he or she is going to do, but just what will be the dynamic results of that policy decision.  Change is not change just on face value.  A good portion of the younger set not being able to find a job started with a decision to spend more at the federal level and force interest rates down, which seemed to be the obvious choice at the time.

               

No comments:

Post a Comment