Thursday, November 1, 2012

EXC...Looks like we are wrong again.

In at least two postings in the last couple of months we have mentioned that EXC looked to be a good buy.  The price was depressed and the dividend solid.  Well we look to have called a position wrong once more this year.  

Today EXC took a pounding.   The stock after reporting somewhat weak earnings actually was headed up in price due to some positive comments from the CEO regarding future earnings prospects.  Then the CEO should have shut up, but nope he went on to casually suggest they might consider lowering their dividend payout down the road.  That led to a over $2 sell off in the shares now selling at just over $33.   

Frankly we seem to have laid another egg here with a call and since we own put options on this one it will cost us several thousand to exit the position.  We expect that the stock will recover some since the sell off was quite sharp.  But that will likely be temporary since once said dividends generally are cut.   Also note the stock will go ex-dividend Nov. 15 so if you are holding this stock make that consideration in your decision. 

Our surprise is this stock is a regulated utility and even with the costs of the Hurricane Sandy clean up the regulators would likely allow them to recover the costs via some rates adjustments.  But today the CEO said that former rate adjustment requests were not looking good either.   Since EXC and Barack Obama have some tight connections should we take today's action as a sign Obama is going to lose?
               
 

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