Thursday, June 23, 2011

The Bullets are all gone.

This morning's release of oil from the US Petroleum Reserve makes it clear the Obama administration has run out of bullets. At Bernanke's press confernce yesterday the Fed Chairman admitted that he had run out of bullets as well. Oh, he tried to say he had some ammo left, but anyone who knows the situation knows the fed has used up every weapon he has to kick-start the economy. The only choice he has left is to continue and accelerate his printing of money. But that piece of ammo is the very very last resort because with inflation already accelerating via oil and food prices, printing more money would only push inflation up faster and do nothing to help the economy. Oil's increase in price is why Obama has choose to release the oil reserve this morning. His hope is it will hurt oil traders enough to get them to back off of aggressive positions and make OPEC back off as well. As with the fed, Obama's effort will not work either as it will only temporarily slow down the oil advance. Deficit spending has already put a fire under prices and oil gimmicks will only be a short term fix.

This we arrive at a point where the massive stimulus spending and printing of money did little to produce economic growth. Many believe we should spend even more stimulus money, but these people are either fools and just plain stupid. More debt will only hurry the day of reckoning for the country.

As I have opined before the only hope now is to cut federal and state government spending and lower regulation and tax rates on SMALL BUSINESS origination. Cutting government spending will release money to individuals to spend and capital to lend for small business to grow and originate. Lowering taxes on small business will allow them to keep more money to invest and hire and to encourage those who might start a business to do so.

These ideas are not new and have been tried before with great success. Those of us who remember the early 1980's watched it work and with it the greatest expansion of wealth and business the world has ever seen occur during the 1980's. Why not do this again? Because the current people in charge, Obama and Bernanke, do not see it that way.

So we likely will continue on this bouncing on the bottom, no new jobs, no new small business, and no growth. Despite the silly talk of lower unemployment we have less people employed now than in the year 2000, or 2008. Add in the current continued bashing of business and corporations and this is what you get.

What to do as an investor? Find good DIVIDEND paying large cap stocks and hide until someone somewhere decides to make a change in policy, or the voters make a change in leadership. Large cap companies know how to survive and are doing so in this enviroment. Why do you think they are not hiring, to save expenses and to be wise with capital when there is no growth in sales to be had.

I continue to eat my own cooking and the stocks I am in are S&P 500 for the most part and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.

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