Tuesday, August 9, 2011

A Suckers Rally.

Today is what as known in the business as a "suckers rally", and the best advice is do not bite. Nothing fundamental has changed, except maybe some of the Democratic grownups have told Obama to sit down and shut up. The administration canceled all appearances today. What you are seeing is a bounce caused by those who are either trading for the day making some quick profits or some bargain basement buyers looking cheaper stock values. I would fully expect the market to sell off towards the end of day since the day traders will take profit and go home.
 
The reason I see this is first experience, but also some evidence. Note that two stocks that have held up very well during the huge sell off of recent days, SO and LO, are trading down today. Traders who hung out there because of the relative safety are leaving those stocks for short term trades. Now that might offer some the opportunity to take a look at SO and LO, but be careful here. I do find LO a very compelling value at the current price myself.
 
Otherwise wait out some time here and see what happens. The Federal Reserve is meeting today and I frankly can not see much they can do. Of course the market will wait and listen to every word said by Bernanke. Bottoms are only reached when it is tested again to see if the sellers are out of the market and values so compelling at the price buyers step in. No sin not catching your buys at the absolute bottom, like not allowing greed to make you feel sad because you did not get the top price when selling.  If this turns out to be a bottom you will lose little by waiting.
 
Gun to my head, I personally think there is some ways down to go. Even though a lot of the last two days action was computer driven trading.
                

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